Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kent State @ Sacramento St KENT @ SAC

KENT STATE

KENT STATEKENT

3-6  |  Road

10
FINAL
Fri, Oct 30 • 10:30 PM ET
Hornet Stadium
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO STATE

SACRAMENTO STSAC

2-7  |  Home

31
Key Game
Jake Stoeckel
KEY GAME

Jake Stoeckel

#97 | Punter
@
Hamish Adams
KEY GAME

Hamish Adams

#37 | Punter
Player
Jake Stoeckel None-None
Hamish Adams None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENT STATE
53%
📊
SACRAMENTO ST
47%
▲ Edge: +17.10% (SAC)
KENT STATE 74% Book Odds: -277
SACRAMENTO ST 29% Book Odds: +240
Book Implied: 73.50% / 29.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 47.5 54%
Under 47.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Spread
+7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.1 points (Sacramento State)
Kent StateKENT (-7.5) 0 Sacramento StSAC (+7.5)
Sacramento State Hornets (+7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kent State Cover

46.0%

Sacramento St Cover

54.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SAC +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

KENT By 1-6 points

16.8%

KENT By 7-13 points

16.4%

SAC By 1-6 points

16.0%

SAC By 7-13 points

14.3%

AI Model Projected Score
25.2
KENT STATE
Book Implied: 27.50
23.8
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Implied: 20
Simulated Score
18
KENT STATE
Book Implied: 27.50
27
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Implied: 20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kent State Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Sacramento St Win
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Sacramento St (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.4
B
Sim Sacramento St (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
D
Sim u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 30, 2026 KENT @ SAC 10 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +8.0% more
Kent State: 305.6 vs Sacramento State: 281.1
Turnovers (L5) +20.2% more
Sacramento State: 1.4 vs Kent State: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.6% more
Sacramento State: 91.3 vs Kent State: 84.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENT Score 25.2 10
SAC Score 23.8 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.6 / 17.8 16.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 91.3 / 84.1 161.0 / 93.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.35 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 281.1 / 305.6 278.0 / 302.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.2 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -360 / +285 → -277 / +240 ↑
93%TICKETS7%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -9.5 / +9.5 → -7.5 / +7.5 ↑
44%TICKETS56%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 47.5 ↑
59%TICKETS41%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENT Advantage
3-7-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -15.1 ATS +/-: -4.6
SAC
2-9-0 (18.2%)
Margin: -13.1 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENT Advantage
4-6-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -15.1 ATS +/-: -4.6
SAC
4-7-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -13.1 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
KENT
6-4-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.2
SAC
3-8-0
O: 27.3% / U: 72.7% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
KENT
SAC
KENT
ML
80% 8-2
90% 9-1
82% 9-2
100% 10-0
ATS
30% 3-7
60% 6-4
45% 5-6
50% 5-5
TTL
60% 6-4
50% 5-5
64% 7-4
60% 6-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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