BAYLOR
BAYLORBAY
5-3 | Road
41
UCF
UCFUCF
4-4 | Home
9
Key Game
KEY GAME
Rhett Armstrong
#98 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Atticus Bertrams
#49 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Rhett Armstrong | None-None |
| Atticus Bertrams | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BAYLOR
43%
UCF
57%
▲ Edge: +11.60% (UCF)
BAYLOR
59%
Book Odds: -142
UCF
46%
Book Odds: +120
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 49.5
55%
Under 49.5
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
UCF
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (UCF)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UCF -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)
BAY By 1-6 points
15.3%
BAY By 7-13 points
12.9%
UCF By 1-6 points
17.0%
UCF By 7-13 points
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Baylor
24.5
BAYLOR
Book Implied: 26
UCF
27.5
UCF
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
Baylor
33
BAYLOR
Book Implied: 26
UCF
29
UCF
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
UCF
Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim
Baylor
Win
66% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
UCF (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Sim
Baylor (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o49.5
Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim
o49.5
Win
Proj Total: 62.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 30, 2026
BAY @ UCF
41 - 9
Nov 1, 2025
UCF @ BAY
3 - 30
Sep 30, 2023
BAY @ UCF
36 - 35
Jan 1, 2014
UCF @ BAY
52 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+24.8% more
Baylor: 1.3
vs
UCF: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAY Score
24.5
41
UCF Score
27.5
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
21.5 / 21.5
14.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards
139.5 / 132.5
66.0 / 184.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.13 / 0.44
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards
383.2 / 394.2
281.0 / 503.0
Turnovers
1.0 / 1.3
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +110 / -130
→
-142 / +120
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-2.5 / +2.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5
→
49.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY
Advantage
6-3-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 14.9
ATS +/-: +7.1
UCF
5-4-0
(55.6%)
Margin: 4.1
ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY
Advantage
7-2-0
(77.8%)
Margin: 14.9
ATS +/-: +7.1
UCF
6-3-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 4.1
ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6%
Total +/-: -3.7
UCF
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
BAY
UCF
BAY
ML
56%
5-4
67%
6-3
78%
7-2
78%
7-2
ATS
33%
3-6
33%
3-6
56%
5-4
44%
4-5
TTL
67%
6-3
89%
8-1
44%
4-5
33%
3-6
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