Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Troy @ James Madison TROY @ JMU

TROY

TROYTROY

4-4  |  Road

24
FINAL
Thu, Oct 29 • 7:30 PM ET
Bridgeforth Stadium
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

7-2  |  Home

21
Key Game
Evan Crenshaw
KEY GAME

Evan Crenshaw

#28 | Punter
@
Patrick Rea
KEY GAME

Patrick Rea

#11 | Punter
Player
Evan Crenshaw None-None
Patrick Rea None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TROY
13%
📊
JAMES MADISON
87%
▲ Edge: +0.80% (TROY)
TROY 12% Book Odds: +722
JAMES MADISON 91% Book Odds: -1007
Book Implied: 12.20% / 91%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 (Over)
Over 51.5 61%
Under 51.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
-17.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (James Madison)
TroyTROY (+17.5) 0 James MadisonJMU (-17.5)
James Madison Dukes (-17.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Troy Cover

7.7%

James Madison Cover

92.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JMU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

TROY By 1-6 points

4.2%

TROY By 7-13 points

2.1%

JMU By 1-6 points

8.6%

JMU By 7-13 points

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
18
TROY
Book Implied: 17
38
JAMES MADISON
Book Implied: 34.50
Simulated Score
24
TROY
Book Implied: 17
32
JAMES MADISON
Book Implied: 34.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI James Madison Loss
87% Win Prob
A
Sim James Madison Loss
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI James Madison (-17.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Troy (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
B
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 29, 2026 TROY @ JMU 24 - 21
Dec 5, 2025 TROY @ JMU 14 - 31
Sep 16, 2023 JMU @ TROY 16 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +41.0% more
James Madison: 463.2 vs Troy: 328.6
First Downs (L5) +23.7% more
James Madison: 21.7 vs Troy: 17.6
Turnovers (L5) +48.8% more
Troy: 1.6 vs James Madison: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TROY Score 18.0 24
JMU Score 38.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 17.6 17.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 187.3 / 185.4 161.0 / 170.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.39 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 463.2 / 328.6 408.0 / 349.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.6 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +700 / -1099 → +722 / -1007 ↓
6%TICKETS94%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +17.5 / -17.5 → +17.5 / -17.5
47%TICKETS53%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 51.5 ↓
52%TICKETS48%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -3.9 ATS +/-: -5.9
JMU Advantage
8-2-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.3 ATS +/-: +9.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -3.9 ATS +/-: -5.9
JMU Advantage
7-3-0 (70.0%)
Margin: 21.3 ATS +/-: +9.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
2-7-0
O: 22.2% / U: 77.8% Total +/-: -1.8
JMU
6-4-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
TROY
JMU
TROY
ML
70% 7-3
67% 6-3
50% 5-5
67% 6-3
ATS
50% 5-5
11% 1-8
70% 7-3
78% 7-2
TTL
40% 4-6
44% 4-5
40% 4-6
33% 3-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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