Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / FAU @ North Texas FAU @ UNT

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

FAUFAU

5-3  |  Road

41
FINAL
Thu, Oct 29 • 7:30 PM ET
DATCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

6-2  |  Home

48
Key Game
Reed Chandley
KEY GAME

Reed Chandley

#91 | Punter
@
Ian Ratliff
KEY GAME

Ian Ratliff

#37 | Punter
Player
Reed Chandley None-None
Ian Ratliff None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FAU
22%
📊
NORTH TEXAS
78%
▲ Edge: +4.40% (FAU)
FAU 17% Book Odds: +479
NORTH TEXAS 86% Book Odds: -610
Book Implied: 17.30% / 85.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.5
Projected
Book Total
78.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +18.0 (Under)
Over 78.5 16%
Under 78.5 84%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+13.5
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Spread
+15.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Florida Atlantic)
FAUFAU (+15.5) 0 North TexasUNT (-15.5)
Florida Atlantic Owls (+15.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

FAU Cover

83.3%

North Texas Cover

16.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FAU +13.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAU)

FAU By 1-6 points

8.2%

FAU By 7-13 points

5.0%

UNT By 1-6 points

13.2%

UNT By 7-13 points

19.1%

AI Model Projected Score
23.5
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Implied: 31.50
37
NORTH TEXAS
Book Implied: 47
Simulated Score
29
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Implied: 31.50
41
NORTH TEXAS
Book Implied: 47
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI North Texas Win
78% Win Prob
A
Sim North Texas Win
88% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI FAU (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: +13.5
D
Sim FAU (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: +12.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u78.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.5
A
Sim u78.5 Loss
Proj Total: 70.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 29, 2026 FAU @ UNT 41 - 48
Oct 12, 2024 UNT @ FAU 41 - 37
Oct 1, 2022 FAU @ UNT 28 - 45
Nov 15, 2018 FAU @ UNT 38 - 41
Dec 2, 2017 UNT @ FAU 17 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +55.7% more
North Texas: 191.4 vs Florida Atlantic: 122.9
Total Yards (L5) +19.3% more
North Texas: 534.5 vs Florida Atlantic: 448.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Florida Atlantic: 0.5 vs North Texas: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAU Score 23.5 41
UNT Score 37.0 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.9 / 26.8 31.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 191.4 / 122.9 240.0 / 71.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.56
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 534.5 / 448.0 644.0 / 523.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.3 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +425 / -575 → +479 / -610 ↑
6%TICKETS94%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +12.5 / -12.5 → +15.5 / -15.5 ↑
65%TICKETS35%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: 69.5 → 78.5 ↑
41%TICKETS59%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAU
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +3.3
UNT Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +7.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAU
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +3.3
UNT
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +7.4
⚖️ Over/Under
FAU
8-1-0
O: 88.9% / U: 11.1% Total +/-: +12.4
UNT
8-1-0
O: 88.9% / U: 11.1% Total +/-: +13.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
FAU
UNT
FAU
ML
89% 8-1
78% 7-2
89% 8-1
67% 6-3
ATS
56% 5-4
33% 3-6
56% 5-4
33% 3-6
TTL
33% 3-6
33% 3-6
67% 6-3
67% 6-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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