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KENNESAW STATE

KENNESAW STKENN

2-6  |  Road

44
FINAL
Wed, Oct 28 • 7:00 PM ET
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

MTSUMTSU

4-4  |  Home

28
Key Game
Matt McKenzie
KEY GAME

Matt McKenzie

#34 | Punter
@
Ashton Logan
KEY GAME

Ashton Logan

#92 | Punter
Player
Matt McKenzie None-None
Ashton Logan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENNESAW ST
50%
📊
MTSU
50%
KENNESAW ST 51% Book Odds: -105
MTSU 51% Book Odds: -105
Book Implied: 51.20% / 51.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
49.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 49.0 51%
Under 49.0 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
+1
Book Line
Kennesaw StKENN (-1) 0 MTSUMTSU (+1)
Line aligns with book spread (+1)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kennesaw St Cover

47.2%

MTSU Cover

52.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MTSU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)

KENN By 1-6 points

16.7%

KENN By 7-13 points

16.1%

MTSU By 1-6 points

16.1%

MTSU By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
25.5
KENNESAW STATE
Book Implied: 25
24.5
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 24
Simulated Score
26
KENNESAW STATE
Book Implied: 25
23
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 24
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kennesaw St Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Kennesaw St Win
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI MTSU (-1) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Kennesaw St (-1) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o49.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
D
Sim u49.0 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 28, 2026 KENN @ MTSU 44 - 28
Sep 27, 2025 MTSU @ KENN 16 - 24
Oct 15, 2024 KENN @ MTSU 5 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +44.8% more
Kennesaw State: 1.3 vs Middle Tennessee: 0.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Kennesaw State: 0.4 vs Middle Tennessee: 0.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +51.1% more
Middle Tennessee: 154.2 vs Kennesaw State: 102.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENN Score 25.5 44
MTSU Score 24.5 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.6 / 19.3 22.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 154.2 / 102.1 197.0 / 112.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.67 / 0.33
Total Yards 363.6 / 339.0 380.0 / 318.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.3 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -155 → -105 / -105 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → -1 / +1 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 49 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENN
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
MTSU Advantage
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENN
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
MTSU
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
KENN
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -0.9
MTSU
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: +6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
KENN
MTSU
KENN
ML
67% 6-3
38% 3-5
78% 7-2
67% 6-3
ATS
56% 5-4
62% 5-3
67% 6-3
67% 6-3
TTL
56% 5-4
50% 4-4
67% 6-3
33% 3-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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