Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Sam Houston @ Missouri St SHSU @ MOST

SAM HOUSTON

SAM HOUSTONSHSU

1-7  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Oct 27 • 8:00 PM ET
Robert W. Plaster Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

3-5  |  Home

24
Key Game
Cal Joseph
KEY GAME

Cal Joseph

#31 | Punter
@
Yousef Obeid
KEY GAME

Yousef Obeid

#36 | Place kicker
Player
Cal Joseph None-None
Yousef Obeid None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAM HOUSTON
28%
📊
MISSOURI ST
72%
▲ Edge: +4.30% (MOST)
SAM HOUSTON 35% Book Odds: +188
MISSOURI ST 68% Book Odds: -212
Book Implied: 34.70% / 67.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 51.5 53%
Under 51.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
-5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Missouri State)
Sam HoustonSHSU (+5.5) 0 Missouri StMOST (-5.5)
Missouri State Bears (-5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sam Houston Cover

23.8%

Missouri St Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MOST -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

SHSU By 1-6 points

10.7%

SHSU By 7-13 points

7.3%

MOST By 1-6 points

15.3%

MOST By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21.5
SAM HOUSTON
Book Implied: 23
31.5
MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 28.50
Simulated Score
18
SAM HOUSTON
Book Implied: 23
33
MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 28.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Missouri St Win
72% Win Prob
A
Sim Missouri St Win
93% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Missouri St (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Sim Missouri St (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Sim u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 27, 2026 SHSU @ MOST 3 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +68.7% more
Missouri State: 115.4 vs Sam Houston: 68.4
First Downs (L5) +64.1% more
Missouri State: 21.2 vs Sam Houston: 12.9
Total Yards (L5) +45.9% more
Missouri State: 396.6 vs Sam Houston: 271.9
Turnovers (L5) +24.8% more
Missouri State: 1.7 vs Sam Houston: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score 21.5 3
MOST Score 31.5 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 12.9 16.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 115.4 / 68.4 129.0 / 26.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.36 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 396.6 / 271.9 313.0 / 284.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +180 / -218 → +188 / -212 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6 / -6 → +5.5 / -5.5 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 51.5
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU
1-8-0 (11.1%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
MOST Advantage
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -6.1 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
MOST Advantage
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: -6.1 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -6.1
MOST
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
SHSU
MOST
SHSU
ML
78% 7-2
89% 8-1
89% 8-1
78% 7-2
ATS
56% 5-4
67% 6-3
56% 5-4
33% 3-6
TTL
44% 4-5
89% 8-1
78% 7-2
78% 7-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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