Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Delaware @ Western KY DEL @ WKU

DELAWARE

DELAWAREDEL

4-4  |  Road

35
FINAL
Tue, Oct 27 • 7:00 PM ET
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
View Odds Details →

WESTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN KYWKU

3-5  |  Home

21
Key Game
Josh Cupitt
KEY GAME

Josh Cupitt

#39 | Punter
@
Karl Campbell
KEY GAME

Karl Campbell

#99 | Place kicker
Player
Josh Cupitt None-None
Karl Campbell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DELAWARE
37%
📊
WESTERN KY
63%
▲ Edge: +7% (WKU)
DELAWARE 47% Book Odds: +115
WESTERN KY 56% Book Odds: -127
Book Implied: 46.50% / 55.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.5 (Under)
Over 55.5 45%
Under 55.5 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.4
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 points (Western Kentucky)
DelawareDEL (+1.5) 0 Western KYWKU (-1.5)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Delaware Cover

35.0%

Western KY Cover

65.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WKU -5.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)

DEL By 1-6 points

13.9%

DEL By 7-13 points

10.9%

WKU By 1-6 points

16.8%

WKU By 7-13 points

18.7%

AI Model Projected Score
23.8
DELAWARE
Book Implied: 27
29.2
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 28.50
Simulated Score
24
DELAWARE
Book Implied: 27
34
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 28.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Western KY Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Western KY Loss
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Western KY (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.4
B
Sim Western KY (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Sim o55.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 27, 2026 DEL @ WKU 35 - 21
Oct 3, 2025 WKU @ DEL 27 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Western Kentucky: 0.4 vs Delaware: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +45.5% more
Delaware: 1.2 vs Western Kentucky: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +12.6% more
Delaware: 21.3 vs Western Kentucky: 18.6
Total Yards (L5) +8.6% more
Delaware: 396.5 vs Western Kentucky: 362.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEL Score 23.8 35
WKU Score 29.2 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.6 / 21.3 24.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 147.0 / 138.6 232.0 / 81.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.29 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 362.4 / 396.5 477.0 / 495.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.2 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -130 / +110 → +115 / -127 ↑
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 55.5 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEL Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: +2.8
WKU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -9.9 ATS +/-: -4.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEL Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: +2.8
WKU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -9.9 ATS +/-: -4.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DEL
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.8
WKU
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WKU
DEL
WKU
DEL
ML
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
75% 6-2
ATS
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
25% 2-6
50% 4-4
TTL
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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