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NEWCASTLENEWCASTLE

2-2-2  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 12:30 PM ET
St. James' Park

ASTON VILLAASTON VILLA

1-2-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
NEWCASTLE
40%
DRAW
21%
ASTON VILLA
40%
▲ Edge: +19.30% (Aston Villa)
46% Book Odds: +119
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +278
31% Book Odds: +226
Book Implied: 45.70% / 26.50% / 30.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 3.0 50%
Under 3.0 50%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
ASTON VILLA
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Aston Villa)
NewcastleNewcastle (-0.2) 0 Aston VillaAston Villa (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

49.3% / 50.7%

Shots (On Goal)

16(1) / 15(3)

Corners

4 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

6/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Aston Villa 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Aston Villa)

Newcastle United By 1 goal

21.1%

Newcastle United By 2+ goals

15.9%

Aston Villa By 1 goal

21.1%

Aston Villa By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2
NEWCASTLE
Book Implied: 1.60
2
ASTON VILLA
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
1
NEWCASTLE
Book Implied: 1.60
0
ASTON VILLA
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Newcastle United Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Aston Villa (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim Newcastle United (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u3.0 Win
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 Newcastle vs Aston Villa 0 - 1
Jan 25, 2026 Newcastle vs Aston Villa 0 - 2
Aug 16, 2025 Aston Villa vs Newcastle 0 - 0
Apr 19, 2025 Aston Villa vs Newcastle 4 - 1
Dec 26, 2024 Newcastle vs Aston Villa 3 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Aston Villa: 0.0 vs Newcastle: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +142.9% more
Aston Villa: 17.0 vs Newcastle: 7.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Aston Villa: 4.0 vs Newcastle: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +83.3% more
Aston Villa: 6.0 vs Newcastle: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Aston Villa Score 2.0 1
Newcastle United Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 39.6% Draw: 20.7% Away Win: 39.6%
Newcastle United (Home) vs Aston Villa (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 76.2% Under 2.5: 23.8%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Newcastle United Share: 50.0% Aston Villa Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Newcastle United
Aston Villa
Newcastle United
Aston Villa
ML
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
ATS
36% 2-3-1
100% 5-0-2
18% 1-4-1
40% 2-3-2
TTL
46% 3-3
57% 4-3
33% 2-4-1
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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