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BRENTFORDBRENTFORD

3-5-1  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 10:00 AM ET
Gtech Community Stadium

LIVERPOOLLIVERPOOL

4-3-2  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
BRENTFORD
61%
DRAW
21%
LIVERPOOL
18%
▲ Edge: +14% (Liverpool)
36% Book Odds: +179
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +264
40% Book Odds: +153
Book Implied: 35.80% / 27.50% / 39.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 54%
Under 3.0 46%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
BRENTFORD
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Brentford)
BrentfordBrentford (0) 0 LiverpoolLiverpool (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

40.1% / 59.9%

Shots (On Goal)

10(2) / 21(5)

Corners

3 / 9

Cards (Y/R)

2/2 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Brentford -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Brentford)

Brentford By 1 goal

26.1%

Brentford By 2+ goals

36.9%

Liverpool By 1 goal

11.1%

Liverpool By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
BRENTFORD
Book Implied: 1.50
1
LIVERPOOL
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
BRENTFORD
Book Implied: 1.50
1
LIVERPOOL
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brentford Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim Draw Loss
29% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Brentford (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Brentford (-0) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Push
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0 Push
Proj Total: 2.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 Brentford vs Liverpool 1 - 2
Oct 25, 2025 Brentford vs Liverpool 3 - 2
Jan 18, 2025 Brentford vs Liverpool 0 - 2
Aug 25, 2024 Liverpool vs Brentford 2 - 0
Feb 17, 2024 Brentford vs Liverpool 1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Brentford: 3.0 vs Liverpool: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Brentford: 0.0 vs Liverpool: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +16.7% more
Brentford: 6.0 vs Liverpool: 7.0
Wins (L5) +50.0% more
Liverpool: 3.0 vs Brentford: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Liverpool Score 1.0 2
Brentford Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Brentford (Home) vs Liverpool (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Brentford Share: 66.7% Liverpool Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Brentford
Liverpool
Brentford
Liverpool
ML
67% 6-3
33% 3-6
11% 1-8
56% 5-4
ATS
69% 4-2-2
89% 8-1
38% 2-4-2
67% 6-3
TTL
47% 3-4-1
60% 4-3-1
60% 4-3-1
47% 3-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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