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EVERTONEVERTON

2-4-2  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 7:30 AM ET
Hill Dickinson Stadium

CHELSEACHELSEA

5-1-3  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
EVERTON
61%
DRAW
21%
CHELSEA
18%
▲ Edge: +10.50% (Chelsea)
34% Book Odds: +195
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +267
42% Book Odds: +140
Book Implied: 33.90% / 27.20% / 41.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 53%
Under 2.75 47%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
EVERTON
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 goals (Everton)
EvertonEverton (+0.2) 0 ChelseaChelsea (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

47.2% / 52.8%

Shots (On Goal)

6(5) / 18(7)

Corners

5 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Everton -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Everton)

Everton By 1 goal

26.1%

Everton By 2+ goals

36.9%

Chelsea By 1 goal

11.1%

Chelsea By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
EVERTON
Book Implied: 1.20
1
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
EVERTON
Book Implied: 1.20
2
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Everton Loss
48% Win Prob
D
Sim Chelsea Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Everton (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Chelsea (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 Everton vs Chelsea 0 - 2
Mar 21, 2026 Everton vs Chelsea 3 - 0
Dec 13, 2025 Chelsea vs Everton 2 - 0
Apr 26, 2025 Chelsea vs Everton 1 - 0
Dec 22, 2024 Everton vs Chelsea 0 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Everton: 3.0 vs Chelsea: 1.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Everton: 0.0 vs Chelsea: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +175.0% more
Everton: 4.0 vs Chelsea: 11.0
Goals Scored (L5) +133.3% more
Chelsea: 14.0 vs Everton: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Chelsea Score 1.0 2
Everton Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Everton (Home) vs Chelsea (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Everton Share: 66.7% Chelsea Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Everton
Chelsea
Everton
Chelsea
ML
50% 4-4
56% 5-4
62% 5-3
67% 6-3
ATS
71% 5-2-1
33% 3-6
60% 4-3
76% 6-2
TTL
25% 2-6
38% 3-5-1
38% 3-5
62% 5-3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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