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COVENTRYCOVENTRY

1-0-4  |  Home

4
FINAL
Mon, Oct 12 • 3:00 PM ET
Coventry Building Society Arena

NEWCASTLENEWCASTLE

2-2-1  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
COVENTRY
61%
DRAW
21%
NEWCASTLE
18%
▲ Edge: +5.60% (Newcastle United)
27% Book Odds: +272
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +272
49% Book Odds: +104
Book Implied: 26.90% / 26.90% / 49%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 48%
Under 3.0 52%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
COVENTRY
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 goals (Coventry)
CoventryCoventry (+0.5) 0 NewcastleNewcastle (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

33.3% / 66.7%

Shots (On Goal)

9(6) / 19(6)

Corners

2 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Coventry City -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Coventry City)

Coventry City By 1 goal

26.1%

Coventry City By 2+ goals

36.9%

Newcastle United By 1 goal

11.1%

Newcastle United By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
COVENTRY
Book Implied: 1.20
1
NEWCASTLE
Book Implied: 1.80
Simulated Score
1
COVENTRY
Book Implied: 1.20
2
NEWCASTLE
Book Implied: 1.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Coventry City
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Newcastle United
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Coventry City (+0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Newcastle United (-0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 12, 2026 Coventry vs Newcastle 4 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +300.0% more
Newcastle: 8.0 vs Coventry: 2.0
Losses (L5) +300.0% more
Newcastle: 1.0 vs Coventry: 4.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Newcastle: 3.0 vs Coventry: 1.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Newcastle: 1.0 vs Coventry: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Newcastle United Score 1.0 1
Coventry City Score 2.0 4
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Coventry City (Home) vs Newcastle United (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Coventry City Share: 66.7% Newcastle United Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Coventry City
Newcastle United
Coventry City
Newcastle United
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
ATS
60% 3-2
29% 1-2-1
40% 2-3
29% 1-2-1
TTL
75% 3-1-1
67% 3-1
50% 2-2-1
25% 1-3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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