LIVERPOOLLIVERPOOL
2-3-0 | Home
0
MAN CITYMAN CITY
5-0-0 | Away
3
AI Model Win Probability
LIVERPOOL
40%
DRAW
21%
MAN CITY
40%
▲ Edge: +2.60% (Manchester City)
29%
Book Odds: +247
DRAW
27%
Book Odds: +275
47%
Book Odds: +111
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 2.75
42%
Under 2.75
58%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
LIVERPOOL
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Liverpool)
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
35.4% / 64.6%
Shots (On Goal)
13(6) / 15(4)
Corners
5 / 6
Cards (Y/R)
2/1 - 2/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Liverpool 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Liverpool)
Liverpool By 1 goal
21.1%
Liverpool By 2+ goals
15.9%
Manchester City By 1 goal
21.1%
Manchester City By 2+ goals
15.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Liverpool
2
LIVERPOOL
Book Implied: 1.20
Man City
2
MAN CITY
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
Liverpool
1
LIVERPOOL
Book Implied: 1.20
Man City
2
MAN CITY
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Draw
Loss
38% Win Prob
B
Sim
Manchester City
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Liverpool (+0.25)
Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim
Manchester City (-0.25)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o2.75
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim
o2.8
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 11, 2026
Liverpool vs Man City
0 - 3
Feb 8, 2026
Liverpool vs Man City
1 - 2
Nov 9, 2025
Man City vs Liverpool
3 - 0
Feb 23, 2025
Man City vs Liverpool
0 - 2
Dec 1, 2024
Liverpool vs Man City
2 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5)
+75.0% more
Man City: 14.0
vs
Liverpool: 8.0
Wins (L5)
+25.0% more
Man City: 5.0
vs
Liverpool: 4.0
Draws (L5)
+100.0% more
Liverpool: 1.0
vs
Man City: 0.0
Goals Conceded (L5)
+50.0% more
Liverpool: 2.0
vs
Man City: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Manchester City Score
2.0
3
Liverpool Score
2.0
0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Liverpool (Home)
vs
Manchester City (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
2.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Liverpool
Manchester City
Liverpool
Manchester City
ML
50%
3-3
83%
5-1
50%
3-3
67%
4-2
ATS
100%
6-0
67%
4-2
50%
3-3
67%
4-2
TTL
45%
2-3
56%
2-2-1
45%
2-3
78%
3-1-1