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TIJUANATIJUANA

5-7-3  |  Home

0
FINAL
Fri, Oct 16 • 11:05 PM ET
Estadio Caliente

PUEBLAPUEBLA

4-4-7  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
TIJUANA
61%
DRAW
21%
PUEBLA
18%
▲ Edge: +32.90% (Puebla)
59% Book Odds: -144
DRAW 25% Book Odds: +295
19% Book Odds: +418
Book Implied: 59% / 25.30% / 19.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 52%
Under 2.75 48%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
TIJUANA
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Tijuana)
TijuanaTijuana (-0.8) 0 PueblaPuebla (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

57.9% / 42.1%

Shots (On Goal)

23(6) / 7(3)

Corners

13 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Tijuana -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Tijuana)

Tijuana By 1 goal

26.1%

Tijuana By 2+ goals

36.9%

Puebla By 1 goal

11.1%

Puebla By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 1.80
1
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 1.80
0
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tijuana Loss
48% Win Prob
D
Sim Tijuana Loss
80% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tijuana (-0.75) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Tijuana (-0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u2.8 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 16, 2026 Tijuana vs Puebla 0 - 0
Apr 18, 2026 Tijuana vs Puebla 5 - 0
Feb 6, 2026 Tijuana vs Puebla 0 - 0
Oct 17, 2025 Puebla vs Tijuana 4 - 3
Sep 27, 2025 Puebla vs Tijuana 0 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +150.0% more
Tijuana: 5.0 vs Puebla: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +75.0% more
Puebla: 4.0 vs Tijuana: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Puebla Score 1.0 0
Tijuana Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Tijuana (Home) vs Puebla (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Tijuana Share: 66.7% Puebla Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Tijuana
Puebla
Tijuana
Puebla
ML
17% 2-10
33% 4-8
42% 5-7
58% 7-5
ATS
64% 7-4-1
72% 6-2-3
55% 6-5-1
71% 6-2-3
TTL
58% 7-5
26% 3-8
43% 5-6
48% 5-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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