Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Atlante vs UNAM Atlante vs UNAM

ATLANTEATLANTE

3-5-7  |  Home

1
FINAL
Fri, Oct 16 • 11:00 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

UNAMUNAM

5-5-5  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
ATLANTE
61%
DRAW
21%
UNAM
18%
▲ Edge: +23.30% (Pumas UNAM)
37% Book Odds: +168
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +260
38% Book Odds: +162
Book Implied: 37.30% / 27.80% / 38.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 56%
Under 2.75 44%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
ATLANTE
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Atlante)
AtlanteAtlante (0) 0 UNAMUNAM (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

49.6% / 50.4%

Shots (On Goal)

16(5) / 6(3)

Corners

10 / 0

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Atlante -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlante)

Atlante By 1 goal

26.1%

Atlante By 2+ goals

36.9%

Pumas UNAM By 1 goal

11.1%

Pumas UNAM By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ATLANTE
Book Implied: 1.40
1
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
2
ATLANTE
Book Implied: 1.40
1
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Atlante Loss
39% Win Prob
D
Sim Atlante Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Atlante (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Atlante (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 16, 2026 Atlante vs UNAM 1 - 2
Apr 12, 2026 UNAM vs Atlante 3 - 1
Sep 12, 2025 Atlante vs UNAM 1 - 4
Feb 9, 2025 UNAM vs Atlante 1 - 0
Nov 8, 2024 Atlante vs UNAM 0 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Atlante: 1.0 vs UNAM: 0.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +25.0% more
Atlante: 8.0 vs UNAM: 10.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
UNAM: 2.0 vs Atlante: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +20.0% more
UNAM: 6.0 vs Atlante: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Pumas UNAM Score 1.0 2
Atlante Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Atlante (Home) vs Pumas UNAM (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlante Share: 66.7% Pumas UNAM Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlante
Pumas UNAM
Atlante
Pumas UNAM
ML
47% 7-8
53% 8-7
20% 3-12
29% 4-10
ATS
62% 8-5-1
54% 7-6
33% 4-8-2
25% 3-9
TTL
20% 3-12
69% 9-4
50% 7-7
64% 7-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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