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NECAXANECAXA

2-3-6  |  Home

0
FINAL
Fri, Oct 16 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Victoria

ATLASATLAS

5-3-3  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
NECAXA
18%
DRAW
21%
ATLAS
61%
▲ Edge: +32.50% (Necaxa)
29% Book Odds: +248
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +274
48% Book Odds: +108
Book Implied: 28.70% / 26.70% / 48.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 56%
Under 2.75 44%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
ATLAS
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Atlas)
NecaxaNecaxa (+0.5) 0 AtlasAtlas (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

48.8% / 51.2%

Shots (On Goal)

20(3) / 14(5)

Corners

10 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 1/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Atlas -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlas)

Necaxa By 1 goal

11.1%

Necaxa By 2+ goals

4.8%

Atlas By 1 goal

26.1%

Atlas By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1.10
2
ATLAS
Book Implied: 1.60
Simulated Score
1
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1.10
2
ATLAS
Book Implied: 1.60
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Atlas Win
39% Win Prob
D
Sim Atlas Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Atlas (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Atlas (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 16, 2026 Necaxa vs Atlas 0 - 2
Feb 14, 2026 Necaxa vs Atlas 3 - 1
Jan 17, 2026 Necaxa vs Atlas 0 - 1
Sep 27, 2025 Atlas vs Necaxa 3 - 2
Aug 9, 2025 Atlas vs Necaxa 0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Atlas: 1.0 vs Necaxa: 3.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Atlas: 1.0 vs Necaxa: 0.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Atlas: 2.0 vs Necaxa: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +22.2% more
Atlas: 9.0 vs Necaxa: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlas Score 2.0 2
Necaxa Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Necaxa (Home) vs Atlas (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Necaxa Share: 33.3% Atlas Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Necaxa
Atlas
Necaxa
Atlas
ML
42% 5-7
67% 8-4
50% 6-6
42% 5-7
ATS
58% 7-5
57% 6-5
58% 7-5
43% 5-6
TTL
58% 7-5
75% 9-3
83% 10-2
42% 5-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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