Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Racing vs Valencia Racing vs Valencia

RACINGRACING

3-2-5  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Oct 11 • 3:00 PM ET
El Sardineros

VALENCIAVALENCIA

1-3-6  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
RACING
35%
DRAW
31%
VALENCIA
35%
▲ Edge: +16.10% (Valencia)
43% Book Odds: +135
DRAW --
34% Book Odds: +195
Book Implied: 42.60% / % / 33.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 48%
Under 2.5 52%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
VALENCIA
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Valencia)
RacingRacing (-0.5) 0 ValenciaValencia (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

54.1% / 45.9%

Shots (On Goal)

20(11) / 10(2)

Corners

8 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Valencia 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Valencia)

Racing Santander By 1 goal

21.1%

Racing Santander By 2+ goals

15.9%

Valencia By 1 goal

21.1%

Valencia By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
RACING
Book Implied: 1.50
1
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
RACING
Book Implied: 1.50
1
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Win
42% Win Prob
A
Sim Racing Santander Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Valencia (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim Racing Santander (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2026 Racing vs Valencia 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +50.0% more
Valencia: 12.0 vs Racing: 18.0
Goals Scored (L5) +125.0% more
Racing: 9.0 vs Valencia: 4.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Racing: 2.0 vs Valencia: 1.0
Losses (L5) +33.3% more
Racing: 3.0 vs Valencia: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Valencia Score 1.0 2
Racing Santander Score 1.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Racing Santander (Home) vs Valencia (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Racing Santander Share: 50.0% Valencia Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Racing Santander
Valencia
Racing Santander
Valencia
ML
30% 3-7
70% 7-3
70% 7-3
30% 3-7
ATS
30% 3-7
84% 8-1
80% 8-2
47% 4-5
TTL
40% 4-6
40% 4-6
37% 3-6
60% 6-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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