Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Real Sociedad vs Deportivo Real Sociedad vs Deportivo

REAL SOCIEDADREAL SOCIEDAD

3-1-3  |  Home

3
FINAL
Sun, Oct 11 • 10:15 AM ET
Reale Arena

DEPORTIVODEPORTIVO

2-4-1  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
REAL SOCIEDAD
35%
DRAW
31%
DEPORTIVO
35%
▲ Edge: +27.80% (Deportivo)
57% Book Odds: -130
DRAW --
22% Book Odds: +350
Book Implied: 56.50% / % / 22.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 44%
Under 2.5 56%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
DEPORTIVO
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Deportivo)
Real SociedadReal Sociedad (-0.5) 0 DeportivoDeportivo (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

40.0% / 60.0%

Shots (On Goal)

12(4) / 21(7)

Corners

7 / 10

Cards (Y/R)

1/1 - 2/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Deportivo 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Deportivo)

Real Sociedad By 1 goal

21.1%

Real Sociedad By 2+ goals

15.9%

Deportivo By 1 goal

21.1%

Deportivo By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Implied: 1.50
1
DEPORTIVO
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Implied: 1.50
1
DEPORTIVO
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
39% Win Prob
A
Sim Real Sociedad Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Deportivo (+0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim Real Sociedad (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2026 Real Sociedad vs Deportivo 3 - 2
Feb 2, 2018 Real Sociedad vs Deportivo 5 - 0
Sep 10, 2017 Deportivo vs Real Sociedad 2 - 4
Apr 23, 2017 Real Sociedad vs Deportivo 1 - 0
Dec 5, 2016 Deportivo vs Real Sociedad 5 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Deportivo: 2.0 vs Real Sociedad: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Deportivo: 1.0 vs Real Sociedad: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +50.0% more
Deportivo: 6.0 vs Real Sociedad: 9.0
Goals Scored (L5) +14.3% more
Deportivo: 8.0 vs Real Sociedad: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Deportivo Score 1.0 2
Real Sociedad Score 1.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Real Sociedad (Home) vs Deportivo (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Real Sociedad Share: 50.0% Deportivo Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Real Sociedad
Deportivo
Real Sociedad
Deportivo
ML
12% 1-7
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
12% 1-7
ATS
38% 3-5
88% 7-1
75% 6-2
12% 1-7
TTL
25% 2-6
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.