Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Elche vs Celta Vigo Elche vs Celta Vigo

ELCHEELCHE

1-2-4  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sun, Oct 11 • 8:00 AM ET
Estadio Martínez Valero

CELTA VIGOCELTA VIGO

1-4-2  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
ELCHE
35%
DRAW
31%
CELTA VIGO
35%
▲ Edge: +9.20% (Celta Vigo)
33% Book Odds: +200
DRAW --
41% Book Odds: +145
Book Implied: 33.30% / % / 40.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 46%
Under 2.5 54%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
ELCHE
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Elche)
ElcheElche (+0.5) 0 Celta VigoCelta Vigo (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

66.6% / 33.4%

Shots (On Goal)

13(2) / 7(0)

Corners

5 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Elche 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Elche)

Elche By 1 goal

21.1%

Elche By 2+ goals

15.9%

Celta Vigo By 1 goal

21.1%

Celta Vigo By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ELCHE
Book Implied: 1
1
CELTA VIGO
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
ELCHE
Book Implied: 1
0
CELTA VIGO
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Win
35% Win Prob
B
Sim Elche Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Elche (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Elche (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2026 Elche vs Celta Vigo 0 - 0
Sep 28, 2025 Elche vs Celta Vigo 2 - 1
Apr 26, 2023 Celta Vigo vs Elche 1 - 0
Jan 6, 2023 Elche vs Celta Vigo 0 - 1
May 15, 2022 Celta Vigo vs Elche 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +266.7% more
Celta Vigo: 3.0 vs Elche: 11.0
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Celta Vigo: 3.0 vs Elche: 1.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Celta Vigo: 1.0 vs Elche: 3.0
Goals Scored (L5) +42.9% more
Elche: 10.0 vs Celta Vigo: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Celta Vigo Score 1.0 0
Elche Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Elche (Home) vs Celta Vigo (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Elche Share: 50.0% Celta Vigo Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Elche
Celta Vigo
Elche
Celta Vigo
ML
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
12% 1-7
ATS
75% 6-2
27% 2-5
62% 5-3
25% 2-6
TTL
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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