Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / UNAM vs Cruz Azul UNAM vs Cruz Azul

UNAMUNAM

3-3-4  |  Home

3
FINAL
Sun, Oct 11 • 9:15 PM ET
Estadio Olímpico Universitario

CRUZ AZULCRUZ AZUL

5-1-4  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
UNAM
35%
DRAW
31%
CRUZ AZUL
35%
▲ Edge: +1.20% (Cruz Azul)
27% Book Odds: +268
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +264
49% Book Odds: +105
Book Implied: 27.20% / 27.50% / 48.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 46%
Under 2.75 54%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
UNAM
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (UNAM)
UNAMUNAM (+0.5) 0 Cruz AzulCruz Azul (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

31.7% / 68.3%

Shots (On Goal)

9(5) / 30(6)

Corners

4 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

0/1 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Pumas UNAM 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Pumas UNAM)

Pumas UNAM By 1 goal

21.1%

Pumas UNAM By 2+ goals

15.9%

Cruz Azul By 1 goal

21.1%

Cruz Azul By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.10
1
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.60
Simulated Score
1
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.10
2
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.60
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Win
38% Win Prob
A
Sim Cruz Azul Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pumas UNAM (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Cruz Azul (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2026 UNAM vs Cruz Azul 3 - 3
Mar 14, 2026 UNAM vs Cruz Azul 2 - 2
Nov 8, 2025 Cruz Azul vs UNAM 2 - 3
Apr 5, 2025 Cruz Azul vs UNAM 3 - 2
Oct 26, 2024 UNAM vs Cruz Azul 0 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +16.7% more
Cruz Azul: 7.0 vs UNAM: 6.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +12.5% more
UNAM: 8.0 vs Cruz Azul: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Cruz Azul Score 1.0 3
Pumas UNAM Score 1.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Pumas UNAM (Home) vs Cruz Azul (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Pumas UNAM Share: 50.0% Cruz Azul Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Pumas UNAM
Cruz Azul
Pumas UNAM
Cruz Azul
ML
55% 6-5
64% 7-4
20% 2-8
45% 5-6
ATS
52% 5-5
50% 5-5-1
11% 1-8
40% 4-6-1
TTL
62% 6-4
40% 4-6-1
68% 6-3
55% 6-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.