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PACHUCAPACHUCA

3-3-4  |  Home

3
FINAL
Sun, Oct 11 • 7:10 PM ET
Estadio Hidalgo

NECAXANECAXA

2-3-6  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
PACHUCA
61%
DRAW
21%
NECAXA
18%
▲ Edge: +23.10% (Necaxa)
58% Book Odds: -136
DRAW 24% Book Odds: +310
22% Book Odds: +362
Book Implied: 57.60% / 24.40% / 21.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 53%
Under 2.75 47%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
PACHUCA
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Pachuca)
PachucaPachuca (-0.8) 0 NecaxaNecaxa (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

60.7% / 39.3%

Shots (On Goal)

18(6) / 16(7)

Corners

5 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

4/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Pachuca -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Pachuca)

Pachuca By 1 goal

26.1%

Pachuca By 2+ goals

36.9%

Necaxa By 1 goal

11.1%

Necaxa By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1.80
1
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1.80
1
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pachuca Loss
55% Win Prob
C
Sim Pachuca Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pachuca (-0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Pachuca (-0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2026 Pachuca vs Necaxa 3 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +300.0% more
Pachuca: 1.0 vs Necaxa: 4.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +200.0% more
Pachuca: 4.0 vs Necaxa: 12.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Pachuca: 2.0 vs Necaxa: 0.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Pachuca: 2.0 vs Necaxa: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Necaxa Score 1.0 3
Pachuca Score 2.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Pachuca (Home) vs Necaxa (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Pachuca Share: 66.7% Necaxa Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Pachuca
Necaxa
Pachuca
Necaxa
ML
36% 4-7
36% 4-7
20% 2-8
45% 5-6
ATS
70% 7-3-1
55% 6-5
20% 2-8
55% 6-5
TTL
55% 6-5
64% 7-4
30% 3-7
91% 10-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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