Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Atl. San Luis vs Santos Atl. San Luis vs Santos

ATL. SAN LUISATL. SAN LUIS

3-3-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sun, Oct 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Estadio Libertad Financiera

SANTOSSANTOS

3-1-6  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
ATL. SAN LUIS
35%
DRAW
31%
SANTOS
35%
▲ Edge: +18.20% (Santos)
44% Book Odds: +126
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +268
32% Book Odds: +214
Book Implied: 44.20% / 27.20% / 31.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 47%
Under 2.75 53%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
SANTOS
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Santos)
Atl. San LuisAtl. San Luis (-0.2) 0 SantosSantos (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

56.1% / 43.9%

Shots (On Goal)

16(3) / 17(8)

Corners

6 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Santos 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Santos)

Atlético de San Luis By 1 goal

21.1%

Atlético de San Luis By 2+ goals

15.9%

Santos By 1 goal

21.1%

Santos By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1.50
1
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
2
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1.50
1
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
39% Win Prob
A
Sim Atlético de San Luis Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Santos (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim Atlético de San Luis (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim o2.8
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2026 Atl. San Luis vs Santos 1 - 2
Apr 22, 2026 Atl. San Luis vs Santos 2 - 0
Sep 21, 2025 Santos vs Atl. San Luis 1 - 4
Mar 30, 2025 Santos vs Atl. San Luis 2 - 3
Sep 28, 2024 Atl. San Luis vs Santos 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +125.0% more
Santos: 4.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 9.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Santos: 1.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Santos: 1.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +50.0% more
Atl. San Luis: 9.0 vs Santos: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Santos Score 1.0 2
Atlético de San Luis Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Atlético de San Luis (Home) vs Santos (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlético de San Luis Share: 50.0% Santos Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlético de San Luis
Santos
Atlético de San Luis
Santos
ML
27% 3-8
45% 5-6
45% 5-6
64% 7-4
ATS
60% 6-4-1
50% 5-5-1
56% 5-4-2
60% 6-4-1
TTL
30% 3-7-1
65% 6-3-1
70% 7-3-1
50% 5-5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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