PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
0-6-3 | Road
1
DETROIT
RED WINGSDET
2-3-2 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Joseph Woll
#53 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Daniil Tarasov
#80 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll | None-None | 2.00 | 0.923 | -- |
| Daniil Tarasov | None-None | 1.00 | 0.944 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00
GAA
Ldr 1.00
0.923
Save %
Ldr 0.944
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
45%
RED WINGS
55%
▲ Edge: +0.30% (PHI)
FLYERS
45%
Book Odds: +124
RED WINGS
60%
Book Odds: -148
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 5.5
59%
Under 5.5
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
DETROIT
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DET -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
PHI By 1 goal
8.6%
PHI By 2-3 goals
5.5%
DET By 1 goal
18.9%
DET By 2-3 goals
34.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
2.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2
Detroit
3.8
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Wings
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Wings
Win
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Wings (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim
Red Wings (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Sim
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 15, 2026
PHI @ DET
1 - 2
Apr 9, 2026
PHI @ DET
3 - 6
Apr 2, 2026
DET @ PHI
4 - 2
Mar 28, 2026
PHI @ DET
5 - 3
Jan 21, 2025
DET @ PHI
1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+41.0% more
Detroit: 30.4
vs
Philadelphia: 21.5
Blocked Shots (L5)
+8.8% more
Detroit: 15.9
vs
Philadelphia: 14.6
Power Play % (L5)
+2.8%
Detroit: 10.2%
vs
Philadelphia: 7.4%
Takeaways (L5)
+8.0% more
Philadelphia: 4.5
vs
Detroit: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
2.2
1
DET Score
3.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.9 / 14.6
24.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
47.8 / 51.7
46.7 / 53.3
Hits
23.9 / 25.7
19.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
1022.0 / 740.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
30.4 / 21.5
26.0 / 18.0
Takeaways
4.1 / 4.5
7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +114 / -135
→
+124 / -148
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
PHI
DET
PHI
ML
60%
9-6
50%
8-8
47%
7-8
38%
6-10
ATS
33%
5-10
38%
6-10
73%
11-4
50%
8-8
TTL
20%
3-12
56%
9-7
40%
6-9
44%
7-9
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