Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cowboys @ Eagles DAL @ PHI

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

3-4  |  Road

38
FINAL
Mon, Oct 26 • 8:15 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

EAGLESPHI

2-5  |  Home

21
Key Game
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
@
Braden Mann
KEY GAME

Braden Mann

#10 | Punter
Player
Bryan Anger None-None
Braden Mann None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
42%
📊
EAGLES
58%
▲ Edge: +23.10% (PHI)
COWBOYS 67% Book Odds: -207
EAGLES 35% Book Odds: +183
Book Implied: 67.40% / 35.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 (Over)
Over 43.5 66%
Under 43.5 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
+4
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.4 points (Philadelphia)
CowboysDAL (-4) 0 EaglesPHI (+4)
Philadelphia Eagles (+4) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

46.0%

Eagles Cover

54.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PHI -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

DAL By 1-6 points

16.0%

DAL By 7-13 points

14.3%

PHI By 1-6 points

16.8%

PHI By 7-13 points

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
23.8
DALLAS
Book Implied: 23.80
25.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 19.80
Simulated Score
23
DALLAS
Book Implied: 23.80
26
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 19.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Eagles Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Eagles (+4) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.4
A
Sim Eagles (+4) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
A
Sim o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 26, 2026 DAL @ PHI 38 - 21
Nov 23, 2025 PHI @ DAL 21 - 24
Sep 4, 2025 DAL @ PHI 20 - 24
Dec 29, 2024 DAL @ PHI 7 - 41
Nov 10, 2024 PHI @ DAL 34 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +65.2% more
Dallas: 1.6 vs Philadelphia: 0.5
Net Passing Yards (L5) +37.8% more
Dallas: 279.2 vs Philadelphia: 173.6
First Downs (L5) +34.4% more
Dallas: 23.4 vs Philadelphia: 15.4
Total Yards (L5) +31.5% more
Dallas: 349.2 vs Philadelphia: 239.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 23.8 38
PHI Score 25.2 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.4 / 23.4 23.0 / 25.0
Net Passing Yards 173.6 / 279.2 200.0 / 212.0
Rushing Yards 65.8 / 70.0 121.0 / 204.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.62
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 239.4 / 349.2 321.0 / 416.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.1 / 5.4 5.2 / 6.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +136 / -162 → -207 / +183 ↓
82%TICKETS18%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → -4 / +4 ↓
46%TICKETS54%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 43.5 ↓
62%TICKETS38%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
PHI
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -6.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
PHI
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -6.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +3.0
PHI
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
DAL
PHI
DAL
ML
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
ATS
29% 2-5
67% 4-2-1
71% 5-2
67% 4-2-1
TTL
50% 3-3-1
57% 4-3
67% 4-2-1
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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