Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chiefs @ Seahawks KC @ SEA

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

5-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 8:20 PM ET
Lumen Field
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

SEAHAWKSSEA

4-3  |  Home

20
Key Game
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
@
Michael Dickson
KEY GAME

Michael Dickson

#4 | Punter
Player
Matt Araiza None-None
Michael Dickson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
39%
📊
SEAHAWKS
61%
▲ Edge: +0.80% (SEA)
CHIEFS 43% Book Odds: +135
SEAHAWKS 60% Book Odds: -150
Book Implied: 42.60% / 60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
43.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 (Over)
Over 43.0 61%
Under 43.0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Seattle)
ChiefsKC (+3) 0 SeahawksSEA (-3)
Seattle Seahawks (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

33.4%

Seahawks Cover

66.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SEA -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

KC By 1-6 points

13.5%

KC By 7-13 points

10.4%

SEA By 1-6 points

16.7%

SEA By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
20.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 20
26.5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 23
Simulated Score
20
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 20
23
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 23
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seahawks Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Seahawks Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Seahawks (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
B
Sim Chiefs (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o43.0 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Sim u43.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2026 KC @ SEA 3 - 20
Aug 28, 2026 SEA @ KC 9 - 9
Dec 24, 2022 SEA @ KC 10 - 24
Dec 23, 2018 KC @ SEA 31 - 38
Nov 16, 2014 SEA @ KC 20 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +134.3% more
Seattle: 2.5 vs Kansas City: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +29.2% more
Kansas City: 149.8 vs Seattle: 106.0
Yards Per Play (L5) +26.9% more
Kansas City: 6.7 vs Seattle: 4.9
Total Yards (L5) +18.5% more
Kansas City: 399.2 vs Seattle: 325.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 20.5 3
SEA Score 26.5 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.3 / 20.7 24.0 / 11.0
Net Passing Yards 219.3 / 249.4 257.0 / 163.0
Rushing Yards 106.0 / 149.8 153.0 / 50.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.69 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 325.3 / 399.2 410.0 / 213.0
Turnovers 2.5 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 6.7 5.9 / 4.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +136 / -162 → +135 / -150 ↓
71%TICKETS29%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +3 / -3
83%TICKETS17%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 43 ↓
74%TICKETS26%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +2.3
SEA
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +2.3
SEA
2-3-2 (40.0%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.3
SEA
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
KC
SEA
KC
ML
57% 4-3
100% 6-0
57% 4-3
83% 5-1
ATS
60% 3-2-2
50% 3-3
40% 2-3-2
17% 1-5
TTL
14% 1-6
33% 2-4
71% 5-2
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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