Home / NFL Projections NFL / Packers @ Lions GB @ DET

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

4-3  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 4:25 PM ET
Ford Field
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

LIONSDET

4-2  |  Home

20
Key Game
Daniel Whelan
KEY GAME

Daniel Whelan

#19 | Punter
@
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
Player
Daniel Whelan None-None
Jack Fox None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PACKERS
44%
📊
LIONS
56%
▲ Edge: +8.20% (GB)
PACKERS 36% Book Odds: +181
LIONS 67% Book Odds: -204
Book Implied: 35.60% / 67.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.4
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +5.1 (Under)
Over 55.5 35%
Under 55.5 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
GREEN BAY
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Green Bay)
PackersGB (+3.5) 0 LionsDET (-3.5)
Green Bay Packers (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Packers Cover

55.7%

Lions Cover

44.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GB +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GB)

GB By 1-6 points

15.7%

GB By 7-13 points

13.8%

DET By 1-6 points

16.9%

DET By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
24.2
GREEN BAY
Book Implied: 26
26.2
DETROIT
Book Implied: 29.50
Simulated Score
24
GREEN BAY
Book Implied: 26
27
DETROIT
Book Implied: 29.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Packers (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Packers (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.4
B
Sim u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2026 GB @ DET 17 - 20
Nov 27, 2025 GB @ DET 31 - 24
Sep 7, 2025 DET @ GB 13 - 27
Dec 5, 2024 GB @ DET 31 - 34
Nov 3, 2024 DET @ GB 24 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +78.6% more
Detroit: 119.5 vs Green Bay: 66.9
First Downs (L5) +30.1% more
Detroit: 23.9 vs Green Bay: 18.3
Total Yards (L5) +20.3% more
Detroit: 404.2 vs Green Bay: 336.0
Yards Per Play (L5) +13.5% more
Detroit: 6.1 vs Green Bay: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GB Score 24.2 17
DET Score 26.2 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.9 / 18.3 26.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 284.7 / 269.1 296.0 / 264.0
Rushing Yards 119.5 / 66.9 119.0 / 60.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 404.2 / 336.0 415.0 / 324.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 5.4 6.3 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → +181 / -204 ↑
27%TICKETS73%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +3.5 / -3.5 ↑
61%TICKETS39%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 55.5 ↑
52%TICKETS48%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GB
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-: -0.4
DET Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GB Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-: -0.4
DET
1-4-1 (20.0%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GB
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.5
DET
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
GB
DET
GB
ML
83% 5-1
71% 5-2
50% 3-3
71% 5-2
ATS
60% 3-2-1
50% 3-3-1
60% 3-2-1
50% 3-3-1
TTL
33% 2-4
43% 3-4
33% 2-4
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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