Home / NFL Projections NFL / Giants @ Texans NYG @ HOU

NEW YORK

GIANTSNYG

4-2-1  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 1:00 PM ET
Reliant Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

2-5  |  Home

21
Key Game
Jordan Stout
KEY GAME

Jordan Stout

#15 | Punter
@
Kai Kroeger
KEY GAME

Kai Kroeger

#38 | Punter
Player
Jordan Stout None-None
Kai Kroeger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
34%
📊
TEXANS
66%
▲ Edge: +11.50% (NYG)
GIANTS 22% Book Odds: +351
TEXANS 81% Book Odds: -425
Book Implied: 22.20% / 81%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.0
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 43.5 49%
Under 43.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+10.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (New York)
GiantsNYG (+10.5) 0 TexansHOU (-10.5)
New York Giants (+10.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

61.2%

Texans Cover

38.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NYG +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYG)

NYG By 1-6 points

14.7%

NYG By 7-13 points

12.1%

HOU By 1-6 points

17.0%

HOU By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
19.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 16.50
23.5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 27
Simulated Score
19
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 16.50
25
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 27
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Texans Loss
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Texans Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Giants (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
A
Sim Giants (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.0
D
Sim o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2026 NYG @ HOU 27 - 21
Nov 13, 2022 HOU @ NYG 16 - 24
Sep 23, 2018 NYG @ HOU 27 - 22
Sep 21, 2014 HOU @ NYG 17 - 30
Oct 10, 2010 NYG @ HOU 34 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Yards Per Play (L5) +13.1% more
Houston: 6.1 vs New York: 5.4
Turnovers (L5) +77.1% more
New York: 2.5 vs Houston: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.8% more
New York: 100.9 vs Houston: 90.0
First Downs (L5) +8.1% more
New York: 22.1 vs Houston: 20.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYG Score 19.5 27
HOU Score 23.5 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.3 / 22.1 15.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 272.3 / 276.3 153.0 / 232.0
Rushing Yards 90.0 / 100.9 84.0 / 188.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 362.3 / 377.2 237.0 / 420.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 2.5 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 5.4 4.4 / 6.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +195 / -238 → +351 / -425 ↑
11%TICKETS89%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +5.5 / -5.5 → +10.5 / -10.5 ↑
52%TICKETS48%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: 43.5 → 43.5
67%TICKETS33%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYG Advantage
4-2-1 (66.7%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +3.8
HOU
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYG Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +3.8
HOU
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NYG
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +2.5
HOU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
NYG
HOU
NYG
ML
14% 1-6
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
67% 4-2-1
ATS
43% 3-4
86% 6-1
43% 3-4
86% 6-1
TTL
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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