Home / NFL Projections NFL / Buccaneers @ Panthers TB @ CAR

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

2-5  |  Road

43
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 1:00 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium
View Odds Details →

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

3-3  |  Home

13
Key Game
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
@
Sam Martin
KEY GAME

Sam Martin

#6 | Punter
Player
Riley Dixon None-None
Sam Martin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
49%
📊
PANTHERS
51%
▲ Edge: +8.20% (TB)
BUCCANEERS 41% Book Odds: +142
PANTHERS 61% Book Odds: -157
Book Implied: 41.30% / 61.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.5
Projected
Book Total
45.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 (Over)
Over 45.0 60%
Under 45.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.5
CAROLINA
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Carolina)
BuccaneersTB (+3) 0 PanthersCAR (-3)
Carolina Panthers (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

34.7%

Panthers Cover

65.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CAR -5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAR)

TB By 1-6 points

13.8%

TB By 7-13 points

10.8%

CAR By 1-6 points

16.8%

CAR By 7-13 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
21.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 21
27
CAROLINA
Book Implied: 24
Simulated Score
23
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 21
21
CAROLINA
Book Implied: 24
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Win
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Panthers (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.5
B
Sim Buccaneers (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o45.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.5
B
Sim u45.0 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2026 TB @ CAR 43 - 13
Jan 3, 2026 CAR @ TB 14 - 16
Dec 21, 2025 TB @ CAR 20 - 23
Dec 29, 2024 CAR @ TB 14 - 48
Dec 1, 2024 TB @ CAR 26 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +83.2% more
Carolina: 275.2 vs Tampa Bay: 150.2
Total Yards (L5) +36.3% more
Carolina: 389.8 vs Tampa Bay: 286.0
First Downs (L5) +29.5% more
Carolina: 23.6 vs Tampa Bay: 18.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +27.7% more
Carolina: 5.6 vs Tampa Bay: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 21.5 43
CAR Score 27.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.6 / 18.3 15.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 275.2 / 150.2 178.0 / 64.0
Rushing Yards 114.6 / 135.7 88.0 / 258.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 389.8 / 286.0 266.0 / 322.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.5 4.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 4.4 4.9 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -125 / +105 → +142 / -157 ↑
13%TICKETS87%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +3 / -3 ↑
37%TICKETS63%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 45 ↓
59%TICKETS41%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: +3.1
CAR Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: +3.1
CAR Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.3
CAR
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +9.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
TB
CAR
TB
ML
17% 1-5
29% 2-5
67% 4-2
100% 7-0
ATS
50% 3-3
33% 2-4-1
83% 5-1
83% 5-1-1
TTL
80% 4-1-1
43% 3-4
20% 1-4-1
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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