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MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

1-5  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 1:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

2-5  |  Home

25
Key Game
Bradley Pinion
KEY GAME

Bradley Pinion

#48 | Punter
@
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
Player
Bradley Pinion None-None
Austin McNamara None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
43%
📊
JETS
57%
▲ Edge: +6.50% (MIA)
DOLPHINS 37% Book Odds: +170
JETS 66% Book Odds: -190
Book Implied: 37% / 65.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.0
Projected
Book Total
39.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 39.5 51%
Under 39.5 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Miami)
DolphinsMIA (+3.5) 0 JetsNYJ (-3.5)
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

56.8%

Jets Cover

43.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIA +2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-6 points

15.5%

MIA By 7-13 points

13.4%

NYJ By 1-6 points

16.9%

NYJ By 7-13 points

17.1%

AI Model Projected Score
18.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 18
21.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 21.50
Simulated Score
19
MIAMI
Book Implied: 18
22
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 21.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jets Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Jets Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dolphins (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.4
D
Sim Dolphins (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o39.5 Win
Proj Total: 40.0
D
Sim o39.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2026 MIA @ NYJ 28 - 25
Dec 7, 2025 MIA @ NYJ 34 - 10
Sep 29, 2025 NYJ @ MIA 21 - 27
Jan 5, 2025 MIA @ NYJ 20 - 32
Dec 8, 2024 NYJ @ MIA 26 - 32
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +32.7% more
New York: 183.7 vs Miami: 138.5
Turnovers (L5) +41.8% more
Miami: 1.8 vs New York: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.8% more
Miami: 147.7 vs New York: 96.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Miami: 0.4 vs New York: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 18.8 28
NYJ Score 21.2 25
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.8 / 16.5 19.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 183.7 / 138.5 269.0 / 204.0
Rushing Yards 96.2 / 147.7 108.0 / 156.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 279.9 / 286.1 377.0 / 360.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.8 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 5.2 7.1 / 5.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → +170 / -190 ↑
13%TICKETS87%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +3.5 / -3.5 ↑
46%TICKETS54%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 41.5 → 39.5 ↓
55%TICKETS45%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -2.1
NYJ Advantage
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -2.1
NYJ Advantage
4-2-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.2
NYJ
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYJ
MIA
NYJ
MIA
ML
71% 5-2
83% 5-1
71% 5-2
67% 4-2
ATS
50% 3-3-1
60% 3-2-1
50% 3-3-1
60% 3-2-1
TTL
29% 2-5
33% 2-4
29% 2-5
83% 5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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