INDIANAPOLIS
COLTSIND
2-5 | Road
10
MINNESOTA
VIKINGSMIN
6-0 | Home
16
Key Game
KEY GAME
Rigoberto Sanchez
#8 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Brett Thorson
#19 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Rigoberto Sanchez | None-None |
| Brett Thorson | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
41%
VIKINGS
59%
▲ Edge: +13.70% (IND)
COLTS
27%
Book Odds: +273
VIKINGS
76%
Book Odds: -319
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 42.5
61%
Under 42.5
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
-7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIN -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
IND By 1-6 points
12.2%
IND By 7-13 points
8.8%
MIN By 1-6 points
16.1%
MIN By 7-13 points
19.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Indianapolis
18.5
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 17.50
Minnesota
26.5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 25
Simulated Score
Indianapolis
22
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 17.50
Minnesota
25
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 25
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Vikings
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Vikings
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Vikings (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Colts (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o42.5
Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Sim
o42.5
Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 25, 2026
IND @ MIN
10 - 16
Nov 3, 2024
IND @ MIN
13 - 21
Dec 17, 2022
IND @ MIN
36 - 39
Sep 20, 2020
MIN @ IND
11 - 28
Dec 18, 2016
IND @ MIN
34 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+41.9% more
Indianapolis: 1.9
vs
Minnesota: 1.1
First Downs (L5)
+19.4% more
Indianapolis: 20.3
vs
Minnesota: 16.4
Net Passing Yards (L5)
+13.6% more
Indianapolis: 213.6
vs
Minnesota: 184.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
18.5
10
MIN Score
26.5
16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
16.4 / 20.3
17.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards
184.5 / 213.6
139.0 / 64.0
Rushing Yards
121.6 / 117.2
136.0 / 154.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.27 / 0.53
Time of Possession
0.6 / 0.6
0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards
306.0 / 330.7
275.0 / 218.0
Turnovers
1.1 / 1.9
0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play
4.8 / 4.7
4.9 / 3.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142
→
+273 / -319
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5
→
+7.5 / -7.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5
→
42.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
2-5-0
(28.6%)
Margin: -3.7
ATS +/-: -2.4
MIN
Advantage
6-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +5.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
4-3-0
(57.1%)
Margin: -3.7
ATS +/-: -2.4
MIN
Advantage
4-2-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +5.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +3.4
MIN
1-5-0
O: 16.7% / U: 83.3%
Total +/-: -9.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
IND
MIN
IND
ML
50%
3-3
71%
5-2
67%
4-2
57%
4-3
ATS
33%
2-4
14%
1-6
83%
5-1
43%
3-4
TTL
0%
0-6
43%
3-4
17%
1-5
43%
3-4
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