Home / NFL Projections NFL / 49ers @ Falcons SF @ ATL

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

6-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

3-4  |  Home

29
Key Game
Corliss Waitman
KEY GAME

Corliss Waitman

#15 | Punter
@
Jake Bailey
KEY GAME

Jake Bailey

#16 | Punter
Player
Corliss Waitman None-None
Jake Bailey None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
49ERS
66%
📊
FALCONS
34%
▲ Edge: +5.70% (SF)
49ERS 61% Book Odds: -155
FALCONS 44% Book Odds: +130
Book Implied: 60.80% / 43.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.6
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.9 (Under)
Over 49.5 41%
Under 49.5 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (San Francisco)
49ersSF (-2.5) 0 FalconsATL (+2.5)
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

49ers Cover

69.1%

Falcons Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SF -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-6 points

16.5%

SF By 7-13 points

19.3%

ATL By 1-6 points

12.9%

ATL By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
26.8
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 26
19.8
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
26
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 26
21
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI 49ers Loss
66% Win Prob
B
Sim 49ers Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI 49ers (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim 49ers (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.6
B
Sim u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2026 SF @ ATL 20 - 29
Oct 19, 2025 ATL @ SF 10 - 20
Oct 16, 2022 SF @ ATL 14 - 28
Dec 19, 2021 ATL @ SF 13 - 31
Dec 15, 2019 ATL @ SF 29 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
San Francisco: 0.5 vs Atlanta: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +8.9% more
San Francisco: 19.4 vs Atlanta: 17.6
Turnovers (L5) +57.9% more
Atlanta: 1.9 vs San Francisco: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 26.8 20
ATL Score 19.8 29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.6 / 19.4 21.0 / 26.0
Net Passing Yards 214.0 / 228.9 213.0 / 277.0
Rushing Yards 123.7 / 122.5 82.0 / 123.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 337.7 / 351.3 295.0 / 400.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.2 0.0 / 4.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 6.0 4.7 / 6.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -218 / +180 → -155 / +130 ↑
91%TICKETS9%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -4.5 / +4.5 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↑
61%TICKETS39%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 49.5 ↑
57%TICKETS43%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +4.4
ATL
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +4.4
ATL
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.1
ATL
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
SF
ATL
SF
ML
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
29% 2-5
14% 1-6
ATS
43% 3-4
14% 1-6
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
TTL
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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