Home / NFL Projections NFL / Patriots @ Bears NE @ CHI

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

4-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Thu, Oct 22 • 8:15 PM ET
Soldier Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

5-2  |  Home

30
Key Game
Mitch Wishnowsky
KEY GAME

Mitch Wishnowsky

#19 | Punter
@
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
Player
Mitch Wishnowsky None-None
Tory Taylor None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
46%
📊
BEARS
54%
▲ Edge: +4.10% (NE)
PATRIOTS 42% Book Odds: +138
BEARS 61% Book Odds: -154
Book Implied: 42% / 60.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.5
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +9.0 (Under)
Over 50.5 24%
Under 50.5 76%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.5
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New England)
PatriotsNE (+3) 0 BearsCHI (-3)
New England Patriots (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

57.1%

Bears Cover

42.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NE +2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

NE By 1-6 points

15.5%

NE By 7-13 points

13.4%

CHI By 1-6 points

16.9%

CHI By 7-13 points

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
19.5
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 23.80
22
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 26.80
Simulated Score
23
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 23.80
25
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 26.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.5
D
Sim Patriots (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.5
A
Sim u50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 22, 2026 NE @ CHI 24 - 30
Nov 10, 2024 NE @ CHI 19 - 3
Oct 24, 2022 CHI @ NE 33 - 14
Oct 21, 2018 NE @ CHI 38 - 31
Oct 26, 2014 CHI @ NE 23 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Chicago: 0.6 vs New England: 0.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +19.1% more
New England: 6.1 vs Chicago: 5.0
Net Passing Yards (L5) +10.6% more
New England: 260.6 vs Chicago: 233.0
Total Yards (L5) +9.4% more
New England: 402.3 vs Chicago: 364.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NE Score 19.5 24
CHI Score 22.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 22.8 21.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 233.0 / 260.6 289.0 / 310.0
Rushing Yards 131.7 / 141.7 116.0 / 70.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 364.6 / 402.3 405.0 / 380.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.9 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 6.1 6.1 / 7.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -125 → +138 / -154 ↑
40%TICKETS60%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +3 / -3 ↑
67%TICKETS33%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 50.5 ↑
63%TICKETS37%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: +2.5
CHI Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE
3-3-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: +2.5
CHI Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -2.9
CHI
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
NE
CHI
NE
ML
86% 6-1
86% 6-1
86% 6-1
86% 6-1
ATS
71% 5-2
33% 2-4-1
86% 6-1
33% 2-4-1
TTL
0% 0-7
14% 1-6
14% 1-6
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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