DALLAS
STARSDAL
3-3-1 | Road
3
COLORADO
AVALANCHECOL
4-2-1 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Casey DeSmith
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Scott Wedgewood
#41 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith | None-None | 1.85 | 0.926 | -- |
| Scott Wedgewood | None-None | 1.85 | 0.909 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.85
GAA
1.85
0.926 Ldr
Save %
0.909
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
27%
AVALANCHE
74%
▲ Edge: +12.90% (COL)
STARS
42%
Book Odds: +139
AVALANCHE
61%
Book Odds: -154
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 6.0
58%
Under 6.0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
DALLAS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1 goal
9.2%
DAL By 2-3 goals
6.1%
COL By 1 goal
19.1%
COL By 2-3 goals
34.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
2.5
DALLAS
Book Implied: 2.20
Colorado
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Dallas
2
DALLAS
Book Implied: 2.20
Colorado
3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Avalanche
Loss
74% Win Prob
A
Sim
Avalanche
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Stars (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim
Stars (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
B
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 14, 2026
DAL @ COL
3 - 2
Oct 13, 2026
COL @ DAL
3 - 2
Apr 4, 2026
COL @ DAL
2 - 0
Mar 18, 2026
DAL @ COL
2 - 1
Mar 6, 2026
COL @ DAL
5 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+42.4% more
Colorado: 4.6
vs
Dallas: 3.2
Shots on Goal (L5)
+20.0% more
Colorado: 29.7
vs
Dallas: 24.7
Hits (L5)
+21.6% more
Dallas: 23.3
vs
Colorado: 18.3
Power Play % (L5)
+19.1%
Dallas: 40.7%
vs
Colorado: 21.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
2.5
3
COL Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.8 / 14.7
17.0 / 19.0
Faceoff %
45.9 / 57.4
45.6 / 54.4
Hits
18.3 / 23.3
18.0 / 27.0
Power Play %
2163.0 / 4074.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.7 / 24.7
27.0 / 22.0
Takeaways
4.6 / 3.2
2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142
→
+139 / -154
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
6
↑
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
DAL
COL
DAL
ML
57%
8-6
64%
9-5
50%
7-7
43%
6-8
ATS
57%
8-6
43%
6-8
50%
7-7
57%
8-6
TTL
29%
4-10
57%
8-6
79%
11-3
64%
9-5
Contextual Game News
