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MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

3-3-1  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Oct 14 • 7:30 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

4-3-0  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Jakub Dobes
GOALTENDER

Jakub Dobes

#75 | Goaltender
@
Charlie Lindgren
GOALTENDER

Charlie Lindgren

#79 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jakub Dobes None-None 5.24 0.783 --
Charlie Lindgren None-None 4.00 0.867 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.24 GAA Ldr 4.00
0.783 Save % Ldr 0.867
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
44%
📊
CAPITALS
56%
▲ Edge: +2.10% (WSH)
CANADIENS 48% Book Odds: +107
CAPITALS 54% Book Odds: -118
Book Implied: 48.30% / 54.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
Over 6.5 50%
Under 6.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
MONTREAL
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
CanadiensMTL (+1.5) 0 CapitalsWSH (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Canadiens Cover

77.3%

Capitals Cover

22.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around MTL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTL)

MTL By 1 goal

9.2%

MTL By 2-3 goals

6.1%

WSH By 1 goal

19.1%

WSH By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2.5
MONTREAL
Book Implied: 2.50
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
3
MONTREAL
Book Implied: 2.50
2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Capitals Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Canadiens Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Canadiens (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Canadiens (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 14, 2026 MTL @ WSH 4 - 5
Feb 28, 2026 WSH @ MTL 2 - 6
Jan 13, 2026 MTL @ WSH 2 - 3
Nov 20, 2025 WSH @ MTL 8 - 4
Apr 30, 2025 MTL @ WSH 1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +38.5% more
Washington: 17.8 vs Montreal: 12.8
Takeaways (L5) +38.2% more
Montreal: 4.0 vs Washington: 2.5
Shots on Goal (L5) +13.5% more
Montreal: 31.2 vs Washington: 26.9
Power Play % (L5) +3.7%
Montreal: 12.8% vs Washington: 9.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTL Score 2.5 4
WSH Score 4.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 17.8 / 12.8 17.0 / 12.0
Faceoff % 52.1 / 52.7 57.4 / 42.6
Hits 21.6 / 20.7 15.0 / 16.0
Power Play % 9.1 / 12.8 25.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal 26.9 / 31.2 23.0 / 30.0
Takeaways 2.5 / 4.0 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +110 / -130 → +107 / -118 ↓
22%TICKETS78%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
63%TICKETS37%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
96%TICKETS4%
96%MONEY4%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MTL
WSH
MTL
ML
77% 10-3
71% 10-4
46% 6-7
43% 6-8
ATS
54% 7-6
36% 5-9
62% 8-5
86% 12-2
TTL
45% 5-6-2
29% 4-10
27% 3-8-2
43% 6-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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