CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
1-5-0 | Road
4
ANAHEIM
DUCKSANA
4-2-0 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Dustin Wolf
#32 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Lukas Dostal
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf | None-None | 2.01 | 0.920 | -- |
| Lukas Dostal | None-None | 3.09 | 0.914 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.01 Ldr
GAA
3.09
0.920 Ldr
Save %
0.914
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
25%
DUCKS
75%
▲ Edge: +12% (ANA)
FLAMES
40%
Book Odds: +150
DUCKS
63%
Book Odds: -167
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 6.0
59%
Under 6.0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
CALGARY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CGY +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CGY)
CGY By 1 goal
9.2%
CGY By 2-3 goals
6.1%
ANA By 1 goal
19.1%
ANA By 2-3 goals
34.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Calgary
2.5
CALGARY
Book Implied: 2.20
Anaheim
4
ANAHEIM
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Calgary
4
CALGARY
Book Implied: 2.20
Anaheim
2
ANAHEIM
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Ducks
Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Sim
Flames
Win
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flames (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim
Flames (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o6.0
Push
Proj Total: 6.5
B
Sim
u6.0
Push
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 13, 2026
CGY @ ANA
4 - 2
Oct 10, 2026
ANA @ CGY
4 - 2
Apr 4, 2026
CGY @ ANA
5 - 3
Mar 26, 2026
ANA @ CGY
3 - 2
Mar 1, 2026
CGY @ ANA
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+39.5% more
Anaheim: 18.6
vs
Calgary: 13.3
Hits (L5)
+17.3% more
Anaheim: 27.7
vs
Calgary: 23.6
Power Play % (L5)
+16.0%
Anaheim: 28.3%
vs
Calgary: 12.4%
Takeaways (L5)
+40.6% more
Calgary: 4.0
vs
Anaheim: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CGY Score
2.5
4
ANA Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.6 / 13.3
20.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
47.1 / 48.8
42.6 / 57.4
Hits
27.7 / 23.6
22.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
28.3 / 12.4
20.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
23.7 / 28.3
25.0 / 36.0
Takeaways
2.4 / 4.0
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +180 / -218
→
+150 / -167
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6
↓
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ANA
CGY
ANA
CGY
ML
38%
5-8
43%
6-8
62%
8-5
50%
7-7
ATS
23%
3-10
29%
4-10
54%
7-6
50%
7-7
TTL
50%
6-6-1
46%
6-7-1
42%
5-7-1
46%
6-7-1
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