BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
3-3-1 | Road
3
MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
3-2-1 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Jacob Fowler
#32 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 2.77 | 0.921 | -- |
| Jacob Fowler | None-None | 2.77 | 0.824 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.77
GAA
2.77
0.921 Ldr
Save %
0.824
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
43%
CANADIENS
57%
▲ Edge: +0.80% (BUF)
SABRES
43%
Book Odds: +135
CANADIENS
60%
Book Odds: -150
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 6.5
59%
Under 6.5
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
BUFFALO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
BUF By 1 goal
9.8%
BUF By 2-3 goals
6.6%
MTL By 1 goal
19.4%
MTL By 2-3 goals
33.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
2.8
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 2.50
Montreal
4.2
MONTREAL
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 2.50
Montreal
3
MONTREAL
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Canadiens
Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Canadiens
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sabres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.4
D
Sim
Sabres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Sim
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 17, 2026
BUF @ MTL
3 - 4
Oct 13, 2026
BUF @ MTL
3 - 4
May 18, 2026
MTL @ BUF
3 - 2
May 16, 2026
BUF @ MTL
8 - 3
May 14, 2026
MTL @ BUF
6 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+99.1% more
Montreal: 4.5
vs
Buffalo: 2.3
Hits (L5)
+12.3% more
Montreal: 20.0
vs
Buffalo: 17.8
Faceoff % (L5)
+7.8%
Montreal: 54.4%
vs
Buffalo: 46.6%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+17.6% more
Buffalo: 14.2
vs
Montreal: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
2.8
3
MTL Score
4.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.7 / 14.2
15.0 / 7.0
Faceoff %
54.4 / 46.6
49.2 / 50.8
Hits
20.0 / 17.8
22.0 / 24.0
Power Play %
2.5 / 18.9
33.3 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.7 / 27.9
38.0 / 17.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 2.3
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +136 / -162
→
+135 / -150
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTL
BUF
MTL
BUF
ML
71%
10-4
86%
12-2
43%
6-8
43%
6-8
ATS
36%
5-9
50%
7-7
86%
12-2
71%
10-4
TTL
29%
4-10
50%
7-7
43%
6-8
43%
6-8
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