Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / N Dakota St @ New Mexico NDSU @ UNM

NORTH DAKOTA STATE

N DAKOTA STNDSU

6-2  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 10:20 PM ET
University Stadium (NM)
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

6-1  |  Home

21
Key Game
Aaron Bickerton
KEY GAME

Aaron Bickerton

#39 | Punter
@
Charles Steinkamp
KEY GAME

Charles Steinkamp

#35 | Punter
Player
Aaron Bickerton None-None
Charles Steinkamp None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N DAKOTA ST
30%
📊
NEW MEXICO
70%
▲ Edge: +4% (UNM)
N DAKOTA ST 37% Book Odds: +170
NEW MEXICO 66% Book Odds: -190
Book Implied: 37% / 65.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.5
Projected
Book Total
39.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 (Over)
Over 39.5 75%
Under 39.5 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.5
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
-4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (New Mexico)
N Dakota StNDSU (+4.5) 0 New MexicoUNM (-4.5)
New Mexico Lobos (-4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N Dakota St Cover

27.2%

New Mexico Cover

72.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNM -8.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

NDSU By 1-6 points

11.8%

NDSU By 7-13 points

8.4%

UNM By 1-6 points

15.9%

UNM By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
21.5
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Implied: 17.50
30
NEW MEXICO
Book Implied: 22
Simulated Score
23
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Implied: 17.50
28
NEW MEXICO
Book Implied: 22
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI New Mexico Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim New Mexico Win
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI New Mexico (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.5
B
Sim New Mexico (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o39.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.5
A
Sim o39.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 NDSU @ UNM 16 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +45.0% more
New Mexico: 1.3 vs North Dakota State: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.7% more
New Mexico: 217.3 vs North Dakota State: 177.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NDSU Score 21.5 16
UNM Score 30.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.9 / 19.7 15.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 217.3 / 177.2 187.0 / 53.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.23 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 375.5 / 351.5 279.0 / 251.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.9 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +160 / -192 → +170 / -190
31%TICKETS69%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → +4.5 / -4.5
59%TICKETS41%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 39.5 ↓
82%TICKETS18%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NDSU
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
UNM Advantage
8-1-0 (88.9%)
Margin: 23.7 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NDSU
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
UNM Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 23.7 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NDSU
2-7-0
O: 22.2% / U: 77.8% Total +/-: -6.5
UNM
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
NDSU
UNM
NDSU
ML
100% 8-0
100% 6-0
78% 7-2
89% 8-1
ATS
62% 5-3
50% 3-3
44% 4-5
89% 8-1
TTL
25% 2-6
33% 2-4
33% 3-6
11% 1-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No. 22 New Mexico Makes AP Poll History with 31-3 Rout of Nevada
cbs17 10 hours, 27 minutes ago
New Mexico State Ground Game Overpowers Sam Houston in 30-24 Vic…
yahoo 2 weeks, 2 days ago
Bison Ride Special Teams, Hayes' Three TDs to 31-17 Win Over Nev…
abcnews 2 weeks, 6 days ago
Bison-Wyoming Showdown Ignites Ticket Frenzy in Fargo
inforum 1 month, 1 week ago
Football's Unmatched Grip on Live Television: Why the NFL Still …
yahoo 1 month, 1 week ago