Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / San Diego St @ Colorado St SDSU @ CSU

SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

3-5  |  Road

49
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 6:30 PM ET
Canvas Stadium
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

COLORADO STCSU

3-4  |  Home

56
Key Game
Tashi Dorje
KEY GAME

Tashi Dorje

#89 | Punter
@
Nathan Sutcliffe
KEY GAME

Nathan Sutcliffe

#39 | Punter
Player
Tashi Dorje None-None
Nathan Sutcliffe None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN DIEGO ST
64%
📊
COLORADO ST
36%
▲ Edge: +13.80% (SDSU)
SAN DIEGO ST 50% Book Odds: -101
COLORADO ST 52% Book Odds: -109
Book Implied: 50.20% / 52.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
58.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 58.0 45%
Under 58.0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
+1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (San Diego State)
San Diego StSDSU (+1) 0 Colorado StCSU (-1)
San Diego State Aztecs (+1) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San Diego St Cover

66.6%

Colorado St Cover

33.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SDSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

SDSU By 1-6 points

16.7%

SDSU By 7-13 points

19.0%

CSU By 1-6 points

13.5%

CSU By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
31
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Implied: 28.50
25
COLORADO STATE
Book Implied: 29.50
Simulated Score
20
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Implied: 28.50
32
COLORADO STATE
Book Implied: 29.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI San Diego St Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Colorado St Win
88% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI San Diego St (+1) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
B
Sim Colorado St (-1) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u58.0 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
C
Sim u58.0 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 SDSU @ CSU 49 - 56
Oct 3, 2025 CSU @ SDSU 24 - 45
Nov 11, 2023 SDSU @ CSU 19 - 22
Dec 5, 2020 CSU @ SDSU 17 - 29
Oct 5, 2019 SDSU @ CSU 24 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +38.1% more
San Diego State: 1.1 vs Colorado State: 0.7
Total Yards (L5) +43.5% more
Colorado State: 422.2 vs San Diego State: 294.3
First Downs (L5) +33.5% more
Colorado State: 19.1 vs San Diego State: 14.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Colorado State: 0.4 vs San Diego State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 31.0 49
CSU Score 25.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.1 / 14.3 26.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 152.9 / 144.3 216.0 / 196.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.75 / 0.62
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 422.2 / 294.3 549.0 / 565.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.1 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -162 / +136 → -101 / -109 ↑
61%TICKETS39%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3 / +3 → +1 / -1 ↑
50%TICKETS50%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 59.5 → 58 ↓
8%TICKETS92%
10%MONEY90%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU Advantage
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -7.9 ATS +/-: -7.7
CSU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.9 ATS +/-: -7.7
CSU Advantage
3-4-1 (42.9%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +8.1
CSU
7-1-0
O: 87.5% / U: 12.5% Total +/-: +19.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
SDSU
CSU
SDSU
ML
86% 6-1
56% 5-4
88% 7-1
67% 6-3
ATS
43% 3-4
56% 5-4
50% 4-4
67% 6-3
TTL
14% 1-6
33% 3-6
38% 3-5
44% 4-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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