Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Boise St @ Washington St BOIS @ WSU

BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

6-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 6:00 PM ET
Martin Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON STATE

WASHINGTON STWSU

1-7  |  Home

10
Key Game
Oscar Doyle
KEY GAME

Oscar Doyle

#37 | Punter
@
Max Dean
KEY GAME

Max Dean

#32 | Punter
Player
Oscar Doyle None-None
Max Dean None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOISE ST
52%
📊
WASHINGTON ST
48%
▲ Edge: +31.60% (WSU)
BOISE ST 87% Book Odds: -642
WASHINGTON ST 17% Book Odds: +500
Book Implied: 86.50% / 16.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 52.5 49%
Under 52.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.6
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Spread
+14.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.9 points (Washington State)
Boise StBOIS (-14.5) 0 Washington StWSU (+14.5)
Washington State Cougars (+14.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boise St Cover

48.3%

Washington St Cover

51.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WSU +0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSU)

BOIS By 1-6 points

16.6%

BOIS By 7-13 points

15.8%

WSU By 1-6 points

16.3%

WSU By 7-13 points

14.9%

AI Model Projected Score
25.8
BOISE STATE
Book Implied: 33.50
25.2
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Implied: 19
Simulated Score
35
BOISE STATE
Book Implied: 33.50
18
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Implied: 19
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boise St Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Boise St Win
95% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Washington St (+14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +0.6
A
Sim Boise St (-14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim o52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 BOIS @ WSU 31 - 10
Sep 28, 2024 WSU @ BOIS 24 - 45
Sep 9, 2017 BOIS @ WSU 44 - 47
Sep 10, 2016 WSU @ BOIS 28 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +43.0% more
Boise State: 230.2 vs Washington State: 131.3
Total Yards (L5) +25.3% more
Boise State: 459.4 vs Washington State: 343.4
First Downs (L5) +21.4% more
Boise State: 24.6 vs Washington State: 19.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Boise State: 0.5 vs Washington State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score 25.8 31
WSU Score 25.2 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 24.6 19.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 131.3 / 230.2 53.0 / 258.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.35 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 343.4 / 459.4 244.0 / 407.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -650 / +470 → -642 / +500 ↓
99%TICKETS1%
98%MONEY2%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -14 / +14 → -14.5 / +14.5 ↓
77%TICKETS23%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 52.5 ↑
23%TICKETS77%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 12.3 ATS +/-: +3.1
WSU
1-8-0 (11.1%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.3 ATS +/-: +3.1
WSU Advantage
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +4.9
WSU
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSU
BOIS
WSU
BOIS
ML
56% 5-4
75% 6-2
100% 9-0
88% 7-1
ATS
44% 4-5
25% 2-6
78% 7-2
75% 6-2
TTL
33% 3-6
62% 5-3
33% 3-6
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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