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SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

4-4  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 5:00 PM ET
Mackay Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEVADA

NEVADANEV

3-4  |  Home

28
Key Game
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
@
Ewan Baulch
KEY GAME

Ewan Baulch

#95 | Punter
Player
Trent Carrizosa None-None
Ewan Baulch None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN JOSÉ ST
42%
📊
NEVADA
58%
▲ Edge: +6.30% (SJSU)
SAN JOSÉ ST 35% Book Odds: +184
NEVADA 67% Book Odds: -207
Book Implied: 35.20% / 67.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.5
Projected
Book Total
46.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 (Over)
Over 46.0 62%
Under 46.0 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.5
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
+5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San José State)
San José StSJSU (+5.5) 0 NevadaNEV (-5.5)
San José State Spartans (+5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San José St Cover

59.9%

Nevada Cover

40.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SJSU +3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)

SJSU By 1-6 points

15.0%

SJSU By 7-13 points

12.5%

NEV By 1-6 points

17.0%

NEV By 7-13 points

17.8%

AI Model Projected Score
24
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 20.20
27.5
NEVADA
Book Implied: 25.80
Simulated Score
24
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 20.20
28
NEVADA
Book Implied: 25.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nevada Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Nevada Win
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI San José St (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.5
C
Sim San José St (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o46.0 Loss
Proj Total: 51.5
B
Sim o46.0 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 SJSU @ NEV 13 - 28
Nov 15, 2025 SJSU @ NEV 10 - 55
Oct 5, 2024 NEV @ SJSU 31 - 35
Oct 29, 2022 NEV @ SJSU 28 - 35
Nov 6, 2021 SJSU @ NEV 24 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +55.7% more
Nevada: 1.7 vs San José State: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.4% more
Nevada: 169.9 vs San José State: 148.5
Total Yards (L5) +10.2% more
San José State: 376.0 vs Nevada: 337.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 24.0 13
NEV Score 27.5 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 18.0 19.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 169.9 / 148.5 114.0 / 65.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.07
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.64 / 0.36
Total Yards 337.5 / 376.0 324.0 / 204.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +160 / -192 → +184 / -207 ↑
8%TICKETS92%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +5.5 / -5.5 → +5.5 / -5.5
53%TICKETS47%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 46 ↑
68%TICKETS32%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU Advantage
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +1.4
NEV
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +1.4
NEV
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
1-8-0
O: 11.1% / U: 88.9% Total +/-: -8.1
NEV
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
SJSU
NEV
SJSU
ML
67% 6-3
67% 6-3
78% 7-2
56% 5-4
ATS
44% 4-5
22% 2-7
33% 3-6
44% 4-5
TTL
22% 2-7
22% 2-7
67% 6-3
22% 2-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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