Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Texas @ Navy UNT @ NAVY

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

5-2  |  Road

49
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 3:30 PM ET
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

NAVY

NAVYNAVY

2-5  |  Home

39
Key Game
Ian Ratliff
KEY GAME

Ian Ratliff

#37 | Punter
@
Jacob Carlson
KEY GAME

Jacob Carlson

#11 | Punter
Player
Ian Ratliff None-None
Jacob Carlson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH TEXAS
57%
📊
NAVY
43%
NORTH TEXAS 59% Book Odds: -146
NAVY 43% Book Odds: +132
Book Implied: 59.30% / 43.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.4
Projected
Book Total
61.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +5.6 (Under)
Over 61.0 40%
Under 61.0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
NAVY
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
North TexasUNT (-3) 0 NavyNAVY (+3)
Line aligns with book spread (+3)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Texas Cover

41.5%

Navy Cover

58.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NAVY +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAVY)

UNT By 1-6 points

17.0%

UNT By 7-13 points

17.5%

NAVY By 1-6 points

15.3%

NAVY By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
29.2
NORTH TEXAS
Book Implied: 32
26.2
NAVY
Book Implied: 29
Simulated Score
32
NORTH TEXAS
Book Implied: 32
31
NAVY
Book Implied: 29
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI North Texas Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim North Texas Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Navy (-3) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Navy (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u61.0 Loss
Proj Total: 55.4
B
Sim o61.0 Win
Proj Total: 63.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 UNT @ NAVY 49 - 39
Nov 1, 2025 NAVY @ UNT 17 - 31
Oct 7, 2023 UNT @ NAVY 24 - 27
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +28.0% more
North Texas: 26.8 vs Navy: 19.3
Total Yards (L5) +25.5% more
North Texas: 563.3 vs Navy: 419.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.9% more
Navy: 287.4 vs North Texas: 201.1
Turnovers (L5) +17.6% more
Navy: 1.5 vs North Texas: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNT Score 29.2 49
NAVY Score 26.2 39
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 26.8 30.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 287.4 / 201.1 363.0 / 172.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 419.7 / 563.3 506.0 / 477.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -122 / +102 → -146 / +132 ↓
86%TICKETS14%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -3 / +3 ↓
74%TICKETS26%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: 61.5 → 61 ↓
36%TICKETS64%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.9 ATS +/-: +6.6
NAVY
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 11.9 ATS +/-: +6.6
NAVY
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
7-1-0
O: 87.5% / U: 12.5% Total +/-: +14.0
NAVY
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAVY
UNT
NAVY
UNT
ML
50% 4-4
88% 7-1
100% 8-0
88% 7-1
ATS
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
TTL
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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