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LSU

LSULSU

6-2  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 12:00 PM ET
Jordan-Hare Stadium
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

4-3  |  Home

17
Key Game
Grant Chadwick
KEY GAME

Grant Chadwick

#90 | Punter
@
Hudson Kaak
KEY GAME

Hudson Kaak

#14 | Punter
Player
Grant Chadwick None-None
Hudson Kaak None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LSU
59%
📊
AUBURN
41%
▲ Edge: +11.90% (AUB)
LSU 74% Book Odds: -283
AUBURN 29% Book Odds: +245
Book Implied: 73.90% / 29%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
52.0
Over / Under Line
Over 52.0 50%
Under 52.0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
+7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Auburn)
LSULSU (-7) 0 AuburnAUB (+7)
Auburn Tigers (+7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

LSU Cover

38.8%

Auburn Cover

61.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around AUB +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

LSU By 1-6 points

17.0%

LSU By 7-13 points

18.0%

AUB By 1-6 points

14.7%

AUB By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
28
LSU
Book Implied: 29.50
24
AUBURN
Book Implied: 22.50
Simulated Score
29
LSU
Book Implied: 29.50
22
AUBURN
Book Implied: 22.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI LSU Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim LSU Win
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Auburn (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.0
C
Sim Auburn (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u52.0 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Sim u52.0 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 LSU @ AUB 38 - 17
Oct 14, 2023 AUB @ LSU 18 - 48
Oct 1, 2022 LSU @ AUB 21 - 17
Oct 2, 2021 AUB @ LSU 24 - 19
Oct 31, 2020 LSU @ AUB 11 - 48
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +23.7% more
LSU: 27.3 vs Auburn: 20.9
Total Yards (L5) +18.6% more
LSU: 457.3 vs Auburn: 372.0
Turnovers (L5) +11.8% more
LSU: 1.4 vs Auburn: 1.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
LSU: 0.5 vs Auburn: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LSU Score 28.0 38
AUB Score 24.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 27.3 16.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 180.8 / 156.8 67.0 / 165.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.31 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 372.0 / 457.3 271.0 / 552.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -225 / +185 → -283 / +245 ↓
88%TICKETS12%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -6.5 / +6.5 → -7 / +7 ↓
46%TICKETS54%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 52 ↑
52%TICKETS48%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LSU Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 24.6 ATS +/-: +4.9
AUB
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.6 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LSU Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 24.6 ATS +/-: +4.9
AUB
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.6 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LSU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.6
AUB
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
LSU
AUB
LSU
ML
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
62% 5-3
88% 7-1
ATS
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
TTL
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
25% 2-6
12% 1-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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