UL MONROE
UL MONROEULM
1-6 | Road
21
TROY
TROYTROY
3-4 | Home
14
Key Game
KEY GAME
Makenzie Ryan
#47 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Evan Crenshaw
#28 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Makenzie Ryan | None-None |
| Evan Crenshaw | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UL MONROE
17%
TROY
83%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (ULM)
UL MONROE
17%
Book Odds: +495
TROY
86%
Book Odds: -635
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.5
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +5.0 (Over)
Over 50.5
62%
Under 50.5
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.5
TROY
Book Spread
-13
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Troy)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TROY -16.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)
ULM By 1-6 points
6.2%
ULM By 7-13 points
3.4%
TROY By 1-6 points
11.1%
TROY By 7-13 points
17.8%
AI Model Projected Score
UL Monroe
19.5
UL MONROE
Book Implied: 18.80
Troy
36
TROY
Book Implied: 31.80
Simulated Score
UL Monroe
23
UL MONROE
Book Implied: 18.80
Troy
24
TROY
Book Implied: 31.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Troy
Loss
83% Win Prob
A
Sim
Troy
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Troy (-13)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.5
C
Sim
UL Monroe (+13)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o50.5
Loss
Proj Total: 55.5
B
Sim
u50.5
Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 24, 2026
ULM @ TROY
21 - 14
Oct 18, 2025
TROY @ ULM
37 - 14
Sep 28, 2024
ULM @ TROY
13 - 9
Nov 11, 2023
TROY @ ULM
45 - 14
Nov 19, 2022
ULM @ TROY
16 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+101.8% more
Troy: 201.6
vs
UL Monroe: 99.9
First Downs (L5)
+20.6% more
Troy: 20.4
vs
UL Monroe: 16.9
Total Yards (L5)
+17.3% more
Troy: 393.0
vs
UL Monroe: 335.0
Turnovers (L5)
+10.6% more
UL Monroe: 1.6
vs
Troy: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ULM Score
19.5
21
TROY Score
36.0
14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
20.4 / 16.9
12.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards
201.6 / 99.9
153.0 / 94.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.3
0.19 / 0.27
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards
393.0 / 335.0
200.0 / 243.0
Turnovers
1.4 / 1.6
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +603 / -994
→
+495 / -635
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +17.5 / -17.5
→
+13 / -13
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5
→
50.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
2-7-0
(22.2%)
Margin: -14.7
ATS +/-: -3.8
TROY
Advantage
4-5-0
(44.4%)
Margin: -3.9
ATS +/-: -5.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM
3-6-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -14.7
ATS +/-: -3.8
TROY
3-6-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -3.9
ATS +/-: -5.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4%
Total +/-: +0.8
TROY
2-7-0
O: 22.2% / U: 77.8%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
ULM
TROY
ULM
ML
67%
6-3
67%
6-3
67%
6-3
44%
4-5
ATS
11%
1-8
22%
2-7
78%
7-2
22%
2-7
TTL
44%
4-5
67%
6-3
33%
3-6
67%
6-3
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