Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / W Michigan @ Toledo WMU @ TOL

WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

5-3  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 12:00 PM ET
Glass Bowl
View Odds Details →

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

6-2  |  Home

45
Key Game
Ryan Millmore
KEY GAME

Ryan Millmore

#25 | Punter
@
Markus Meincke
KEY GAME

Markus Meincke

#47 | Punter
Player
Ryan Millmore None-None
Markus Meincke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
W MICHIGAN
47%
📊
TOLEDO
53%
▲ Edge: +1.20% (WMU)
W MICHIGAN 46% Book Odds: +120
TOLEDO 59% Book Odds: -142
Book Implied: 45.50% / 58.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.5
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 (Over)
Over 48.5 63%
Under 48.5 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Western Michigan)
W MichiganWMU (+2.5) 0 ToledoTOL (-2.5)
Western Michigan Broncos (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

W Michigan Cover

54.3%

Toledo Cover

45.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WMU +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)

WMU By 1-6 points

15.9%

WMU By 7-13 points

14.2%

TOL By 1-6 points

16.8%

TOL By 7-13 points

16.5%

AI Model Projected Score
26
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 23
27.5
TOLEDO
Book Implied: 25.50
Simulated Score
18
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 23
42
TOLEDO
Book Implied: 25.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Toledo Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Toledo Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI W Michigan (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.5
D
Sim Toledo (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.5
B
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 WMU @ TOL 38 - 45
Sep 20, 2025 TOL @ WMU 13 - 14
Sep 23, 2023 WMU @ TOL 31 - 49
Nov 25, 2022 TOL @ WMU 14 - 20
Oct 23, 2021 WMU @ TOL 15 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +71.0% more
Toledo: 1.3 vs Western Michigan: 0.6
Total Yards (L5) +34.5% more
Toledo: 449.6 vs Western Michigan: 334.2
First Downs (L5) +11.7% more
Toledo: 20.9 vs Western Michigan: 18.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Western Michigan: 0.5 vs Toledo: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WMU Score 26.0 38
TOL Score 27.5 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 18.7 32.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 190.8 / 189.1 204.0 / 144.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 449.6 / 334.2 595.0 / 351.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.6 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -155 → +120 / -142 ↓
18%TICKETS82%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↓
41%TICKETS59%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44.5 → 48.5 ↑
70%TICKETS30%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WMU
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +1.2
TOL Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WMU
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +1.2
TOL Advantage
4-4-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WMU
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -1.8
TOL
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +8.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
WMU
TOL
WMU
ML
78% 7-2
89% 8-1
89% 8-1
67% 6-3
ATS
50% 4-4-1
56% 5-4
62% 5-3-1
78% 7-2
TTL
78% 7-2
56% 5-4
67% 6-3
56% 5-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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