BOWLING GREEN
BOWLING GREENBGSU
2-6 | Road
24
BUFFALO
BUFFALOBUFF
5-3 | Home
31
Key Game
KEY GAME
Ryan Kingston
#30 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Oliver Hautanen
#31 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Ryan Kingston | None-None |
| Oliver Hautanen | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOWLING GREEN
27%
BUFFALO
73%
▲ Edge: +13.20% (BUFF)
BOWLING GREEN
43%
Book Odds: +133
BUFFALO
60%
Book Odds: -148
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
44.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 44.5
65%
Under 44.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.6
BUFFALO
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.6 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUFF -10.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUFF)
BGSU By 1-6 points
10.3%
BGSU By 7-13 points
6.8%
BUFF By 1-6 points
14.9%
BUFF By 7-13 points
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Bowling Green
20.2
BOWLING GREEN
Book Implied: 20.80
Buffalo
30.8
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 23.80
Simulated Score
Bowling Green
16
BOWLING GREEN
Book Implied: 20.80
Buffalo
28
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 23.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Buffalo
Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim
Buffalo
Win
88% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Buffalo (-3)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.6
A
Sim
Buffalo (-3)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o44.5
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Sim
u44.5
Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 24, 2026
BGSU @ BUFF
24 - 31
Nov 1, 2025
BUFF @ BGSU
28 - 3
Oct 14, 2023
BGSU @ BUFF
24 - 14
Oct 8, 2022
BUFF @ BGSU
38 - 7
Oct 30, 2021
BGSU @ BUFF
56 - 44
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+50.0% more
Buffalo: 1.4
vs
Bowling Green: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5)
+49.4% more
Buffalo: 182.5
vs
Bowling Green: 122.2
Total Yards (L5)
+10.7% more
Buffalo: 340.0
vs
Bowling Green: 307.2
First Downs (L5)
+10.5% more
Buffalo: 20.1
vs
Bowling Green: 18.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score
20.2
24
BUFF Score
30.8
31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
20.1 / 18.2
19.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards
182.5 / 122.2
251.0 / 124.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.53 / 0.53
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards
340.0 / 307.2
378.0 / 341.0
Turnovers
1.4 / 0.9
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +154 / -185
→
+133 / -148
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5
→
+3 / -3
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 43.5
→
44.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
2-7-0
(22.2%)
Margin: -11.2
ATS +/-: -2.3
BUFF
Advantage
6-3-0
(66.7%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU
4-5-0
(44.4%)
Margin: -11.2
ATS +/-: -2.3
BUFF
Advantage
5-4-0
(55.6%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +1.1
BUFF
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUFF
BGSU
BUFF
BGSU
ML
78%
7-2
67%
6-3
78%
7-2
67%
6-3
ATS
56%
5-4
56%
5-4
56%
5-4
44%
4-5
TTL
56%
5-4
89%
8-1
67%
6-3
56%
5-4
Contextual Game News
Air Force Ground Game Overpowers UConn in 35-26 Victory
Iowa's Cam Buffington Named Butkus Award Semifinalist
Julian Lewis, Colorado QB, Hospitalized After Medical Emergency
Bears May Be Without Two Key Starters Against Falcons in Week 6
Colorado Buffaloes Slip to No. 81 in Latest USA TODAY Sports Re-…