Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Sacramento St @ Ball State SAC @ BALL

SACRAMENTO STATE

SACRAMENTO STSAC

1-7  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 3:30 PM ET
Scheumann Stadium
View Odds Details →

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

3-5  |  Home

34
Key Game
Hamish Adams
KEY GAME

Hamish Adams

#37 | Punter
@
Cole Stumbaugh
KEY GAME

Cole Stumbaugh

#32 | Punter
Player
Hamish Adams None-None
Cole Stumbaugh None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SACRAMENTO ST
41%
📊
BALL STATE
59%
▲ Edge: +22.20% (SAC)
SACRAMENTO ST 19% Book Odds: +440
BALL STATE 86% Book Odds: -599
Book Implied: 18.50% / 85.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 51.5 50%
Under 51.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Spread
+14.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 points (Sacramento State)
Sacramento StSAC (+14.5) 0 Ball StateBALL (-14.5)
Sacramento State Hornets (+14.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sacramento St Cover

61.2%

Ball State Cover

38.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SAC +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

SAC By 1-6 points

14.7%

SAC By 7-13 points

12.1%

BALL By 1-6 points

17.0%

BALL By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
24
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Implied: 18.50
28
BALL STATE
Book Implied: 33
Simulated Score
23
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Implied: 18.50
26
BALL STATE
Book Implied: 33
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ball State Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Ball State Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Sacramento St (+14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.0
A
Sim Sacramento St (+14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Sim u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 SAC @ BALL 17 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.4% more
Ball State: 153.3 vs Sacramento State: 110.0
Total Yards (L5) +24.8% more
Ball State: 360.2 vs Sacramento State: 288.7
First Downs (L5) +17.1% more
Ball State: 19.8 vs Sacramento State: 16.9
Turnovers (L5) +34.1% more
Sacramento State: 1.6 vs Ball State: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 24.0 17
BALL Score 28.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.8 / 16.9 26.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 153.3 / 110.0 183.0 / 54.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.62 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 360.2 / 288.7 417.0 / 266.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.6 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +285 / -360 → +440 / -599 ↑
1%TICKETS99%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9.5 / -9.5 → +14.5 / -14.5 ↑
52%TICKETS48%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 51.5 ↑
18%TICKETS82%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
2-8-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -12.3 ATS +/-: -3.0
BALL Advantage
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
4-6-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -12.3 ATS +/-: -3.0
BALL Advantage
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
3-7-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0% Total +/-: -3.0
BALL
7-2-0
O: 77.8% / U: 22.2% Total +/-: +6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
SAC
BALL
SAC
ML
89% 8-1
78% 7-2
89% 8-1
80% 8-2
ATS
56% 5-4
33% 3-6
44% 4-5
40% 4-6
TTL
78% 7-2
67% 6-3
44% 4-5
70% 7-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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