Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Akron @ Kent State AKR @ KENT

AKRON

AKRONAKR

1-7  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 1:00 PM ET
Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium
View Odds Details →

KENT STATE

KENT STATEKENT

3-5  |  Home

35
Key Game
Aidan Stire
KEY GAME

Aidan Stire

#37 | Place kicker
@
Jake Stoeckel
KEY GAME

Jake Stoeckel

#97 | Punter
Player
Aidan Stire None-None
Jake Stoeckel None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AKRON
34%
📊
KENT STATE
66%
▲ Edge: +7.40% (KENT)
AKRON 44% Book Odds: +128
KENT STATE 59% Book Odds: -142
Book Implied: 43.90% / 58.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 (Over)
Over 47.5 60%
Under 47.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
KENT STATE
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Kent State)
AkronAKR (+3) 0 Kent StateKENT (-3)
Kent State Golden Flashes (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Akron Cover

30.9%

Kent State Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KENT -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENT)

AKR By 1-6 points

12.9%

AKR By 7-13 points

9.6%

KENT By 1-6 points

16.5%

KENT By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
22.5
AKRON
Book Implied: 22.20
29.5
KENT STATE
Book Implied: 25.20
Simulated Score
24
AKRON
Book Implied: 22.20
25
KENT STATE
Book Implied: 25.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kent State Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Kent State Win
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Kent State (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim Akron (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Sim o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 AKR @ KENT 20 - 35
Nov 11, 2025 KENT @ AKR 42 - 35
Nov 19, 2024 AKR @ KENT 38 - 17
Nov 1, 2023 KENT @ AKR 27 - 31
Oct 22, 2022 AKR @ KENT 27 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +46.7% more
Akron: 2.4 vs Kent State: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.6% more
Akron: 119.3 vs Kent State: 85.2
Total Yards (L5) +19.8% more
Akron: 337.3 vs Kent State: 270.5
First Downs (L5) +9.6% more
Akron: 18.0 vs Kent State: 16.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AKR Score 22.5 20
KENT Score 29.5 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.2 / 18.0 21.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 85.2 / 119.3 82.0 / 147.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 270.5 / 337.3 376.0 / 422.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.4 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -155 → +128 / -142 ↓
14%TICKETS86%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +3 / -3 ↓
33%TICKETS67%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: 43.5 → 47.5 ↑
74%TICKETS26%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AKR
1-8-0 (11.1%)
Margin: -13.1 ATS +/-: -5.0
KENT Advantage
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -16.2 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AKR
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -13.1 ATS +/-: -5.0
KENT
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -16.2 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
AKR
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: +1.8
KENT
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: -4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENT
AKR
KENT
AKR
ML
89% 8-1
89% 8-1
100% 9-0
67% 6-3
ATS
56% 5-4
67% 6-3
44% 4-5
44% 4-5
TTL
44% 4-5
88% 7-1-1
56% 5-4
62% 5-3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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