Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Hawai'i @ N Illinois HAW @ NIU

HAWAI'I

HAWAI'IHAW

2-6  |  Road

56
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 3:30 PM ET
Huskie Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

0-7  |  Home

21
Key Game
Gehrig Heil
KEY GAME

Gehrig Heil

#47 | Punter
@
Jake Ference
KEY GAME

Jake Ference

#36 | Punter
Player
Gehrig Heil None-None
Jake Ference None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HAWAI'I
66%
📊
N ILLINOIS
34%
▲ Edge: +7.30% (HAW)
HAWAI'I 59% Book Odds: -143
N ILLINOIS 44% Book Odds: +130
Book Implied: 58.80% / 43.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.6
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 (Over)
Over 48.5 50%
Under 48.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Hawai'i)
Hawai'iHAW (-3) 0 N IllinoisNIU (+3)
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawai'i Cover

69.1%

N Illinois Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HAW -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

HAW By 1-6 points

16.5%

HAW By 7-13 points

19.3%

NIU By 1-6 points

12.9%

NIU By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
27.8
HAWAI'I
Book Implied: 25.80
20.8
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 22.80
Simulated Score
27
HAWAI'I
Book Implied: 25.80
24
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 22.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hawai'i Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Hawai'i Win
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hawai'i (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim N Illinois (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.6
D
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 HAW @ NIU 56 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +41.2% more
Hawai'i: 1.4 vs Northern Illinois: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +87.0% more
Northern Illinois: 137.2 vs Hawai'i: 73.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HAW Score 27.8 56
NIU Score 20.8 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.6 / 20.1 14.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 137.2 / 73.4 95.0 / 175.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.14 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 337.6 / 341.5 266.0 / 504.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.4 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -270 / +220 → -143 / +130 ↑
89%TICKETS11%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7.5 / +7.5 → -3 / +3 ↑
37%TICKETS63%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 48.5 ↑
77%TICKETS23%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HAW Advantage
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
NIU
0-8-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -21.4 ATS +/-: -6.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HAW Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
NIU
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -21.4 ATS +/-: -6.8
⚖️ Over/Under
HAW
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.5
NIU
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIU
HAW
NIU
HAW
ML
88% 7-1
62% 5-3
88% 7-1
75% 6-2
ATS
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
75% 6-2
TTL
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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