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UTSA

UTSAUTSA

7-1  |  Road

42
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 8:00 PM ET
Yulman Stadium
View Odds Details →

TULANE

TULANETULN

3-4  |  Home

19
Key Game
Caile Hogan
KEY GAME

Caile Hogan

#30 | Punter
@
William Hudlow
KEY GAME

William Hudlow

#34 | Punter
Player
Caile Hogan None-None
William Hudlow None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTSA
46%
📊
TULANE
54%
▲ Edge: +10.70% (TULN)
UTSA 60% Book Odds: -147
TULANE 43% Book Odds: +133
Book Implied: 59.50% / 42.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.5
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 52.5 50%
Under 52.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
TULANE
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Tulane)
UTSAUTSA (-3) 0 TulaneTULN (+3)
Tulane Green Wave (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UTSA Cover

45.7%

Tulane Cover

54.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TULN -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TULN)

UTSA By 1-6 points

15.9%

UTSA By 7-13 points

14.2%

TULN By 1-6 points

16.8%

TULN By 7-13 points

16.5%

AI Model Projected Score
25
UTSA
Book Implied: 27.80
26.5
TULANE
Book Implied: 24.80
Simulated Score
29
UTSA
Book Implied: 27.80
28
TULANE
Book Implied: 24.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tulane Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim UTSA Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tulane (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.5
B
Sim Tulane (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.5
D
Sim o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 UTSA @ TULN 42 - 19
Oct 30, 2025 TULN @ UTSA 26 - 48
Nov 24, 2023 UTSA @ TULN 16 - 29
Nov 9, 2013 TULN @ UTSA 7 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +83.0% more
Tulane: 1.2 vs UTSA: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +30.4% more
UTSA: 21.9 vs Tulane: 15.3
Total Yards (L5) +22.1% more
UTSA: 432.7 vs Tulane: 337.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.6% more
UTSA: 174.4 vs Tulane: 157.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score 25.0 42
TULN Score 26.5 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.3 / 21.9 18.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 157.7 / 174.4 67.0 / 223.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.75
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 337.3 / 432.7 332.0 / 396.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.4 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -170 / +142 → -147 / +133 ↑
73%TICKETS27%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -4 / +4 → -3 / +3 ↑
59%TICKETS41%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 52.5 ↑
14%TICKETS86%
14%MONEY86%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.6
TULN
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA Advantage
5-3-1 (62.5%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.6
TULN
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +5.8
TULN
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TULN
UTSA
TULN
UTSA
ML
75% 6-2
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
56% 5-4
ATS
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
22% 2-7
TTL
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
67% 6-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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