Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Rutgers @ Northwestern RUTG @ NU

RUTGERS

RUTGERSRUTG

2-5  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 12:00 PM ET
Ryan Field
View Odds Details →

NORTHWESTERN

NORTHWESTERNNU

6-1  |  Home

42
Key Game
Jakob Anderson
KEY GAME

Jakob Anderson

#94 | Punter
@
Nikola Dugandzic
KEY GAME

Nikola Dugandzic

#92 | Punter
Player
Jakob Anderson None-None
Nikola Dugandzic None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RUTGERS
21%
📊
NORTHWESTERN
79%
▲ Edge: +6.10% (RUTG)
RUTGERS 15% Book Odds: +574
NORTHWESTERN 88% Book Odds: -760
Book Implied: 14.80% / 88.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
59.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.0 (Under)
Over 59.0 44%
Under 59.0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+14.0
RUTGERS
Book Spread
+14.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Rutgers)
RutgersRUTG (+14.5) 0 NorthwesternNU (-14.5)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+14.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rutgers Cover

84.1%

Northwestern Cover

15.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around RUTG +14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RUTG)

RUTG By 1-6 points

7.9%

RUTG By 7-13 points

4.7%

NU By 1-6 points

12.9%

NU By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
21
RUTGERS
Book Implied: 22.20
35
NORTHWESTERN
Book Implied: 36.80
Simulated Score
28
RUTGERS
Book Implied: 22.20
30
NORTHWESTERN
Book Implied: 36.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Northwestern Win
79% Win Prob
A
Sim Northwestern Win
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rutgers (+14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +14.0
D
Sim Rutgers (+14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u59.0 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
C
Sim u59.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 RUTG @ NU 14 - 42
Sep 3, 2023 NU @ RUTG 7 - 24
Oct 16, 2021 RUTG @ NU 7 - 21
Oct 20, 2018 NU @ RUTG 18 - 15
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.1% more
Northwestern: 177.6 vs Rutgers: 144.3
Turnovers (L5) +66.4% more
Rutgers: 1.1 vs Northwestern: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RUTG Score 21.0 14
NU Score 35.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.1 / 22.2 26.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 177.6 / 144.3 283.0 / 244.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.69 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 402.4 / 403.7 502.0 / 344.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 1.1 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +650 / -1000 → +574 / -760 ↓
3%TICKETS97%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +16.5 / -16.5 → +14.5 / -14.5 ↓
45%TICKETS55%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 59 ↑
49%TICKETS51%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RUTG
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: -3.2
NU Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.9 ATS +/-: +8.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RUTG
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: -3.2
NU Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 14.9 ATS +/-: +8.8
⚖️ Over/Under
RUTG
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +5.1
NU
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
RUTG
NU
RUTG
ML
86% 6-1
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
ATS
57% 4-3
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
TTL
100% 7-0
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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