SYRACUSE
SYRACUSESYR
3-4 | Road
31
NORTH CAROLINA
NORTH CAROLINAUNC
4-3 | Home
30
Key Game
KEY GAME
Jimmy Gregg
#41 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Aeron Burrell
#92 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Jimmy Gregg | None-None |
| Aeron Burrell | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SYRACUSE
22%
NORTH CAROLINA
78%
SYRACUSE
26%
Book Odds: +285
NORTH CAROLINA
78%
Book Odds: -360
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.4
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +3.9 (Over)
Over 49.5
59%
Under 49.5
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
-8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (North Carolina)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNC -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)
SYR By 1-6 points
8.6%
SYR By 7-13 points
5.3%
UNC By 1-6 points
13.5%
UNC By 7-13 points
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Syracuse
20.2
SYRACUSE
Book Implied: 20.50
North Carolina
33.2
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 29
Simulated Score
Syracuse
24
SYRACUSE
Book Implied: 20.50
North Carolina
23
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 29
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
North Carolina
Loss
78% Win Prob
A
Sim
Syracuse
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
North Carolina (-8.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim
Syracuse (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o49.5
Win
Proj Total: 53.4
B
Sim
u49.5
Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 24, 2026
SYR @ UNC
31 - 30
Oct 31, 2025
UNC @ SYR
27 - 10
Oct 7, 2023
SYR @ UNC
7 - 40
Sep 12, 2020
SYR @ UNC
6 - 31
Oct 20, 2018
UNC @ SYR
37 - 40
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+29.6% more
Syracuse: 148.1
vs
North Carolina: 104.2
Total Yards (L5)
+28.2% more
Syracuse: 433.2
vs
North Carolina: 311.0
First Downs (L5)
+26.1% more
Syracuse: 25.4
vs
North Carolina: 18.8
Time of Possession (L5)
+11.0% more
Syracuse: 0.6
vs
North Carolina: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SYR Score
20.2
31
UNC Score
33.2
30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
18.8 / 25.4
20.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards
104.2 / 148.1
101.0 / 199.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.53 / 0.42
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.6
0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards
311.0 / 433.2
372.0 / 455.0
Turnovers
1.7 / 1.8
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +260 / -325
→
+285 / -360
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9.5 / -9.5
→
+8.5 / -8.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 44.5
→
49.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SYR
4-4-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: +6.2
UNC
4-4-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SYR
5-3-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: +6.2
UNC
5-3-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SYR
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5%
Total +/-: +4.0
UNC
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
SYR
UNC
SYR
ML
50%
4-4
62%
5-3
62%
5-3
75%
6-2
ATS
38%
3-5
38%
3-5
62%
5-3
88%
7-1
TTL
38%
3-5
62%
5-3
50%
4-4
75%
6-2
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